The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 99.1%.

2026-04-08 10:24:06

According to the CME “FedWatch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points by March is 0.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 0%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 19.5%.

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