Just been looking at how the major US indexes have actually performed over the last decade, and the numbers are pretty interesting when you break them down.

So the stock market performance last 10 years has been solid overall. The S&P 500 basically tripled - up 216% total, which works out to about 12.1% annually. That's the broad market baseline. But if you dig deeper, you get different stories depending on where you were invested.

The Dow Jones, which focuses on those 30 blue-chip companies, was more conservative - 159% return over the decade, around 10% per year. Makes sense given the focus on established, slower-growth names. Then there's the Nasdaq Composite, which absolutely crushed it at 336% total return and 15.8% annually. That's where all the tech concentration lives, and obviously that sector has been on fire.

The top holdings tell the story. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon - these names have basically carried the market. Nvidia alone is like 7.9% of the S&P 500 at this point. The stock market performance last 10 years has been heavily dependent on how much tech exposure you had.

Here's the thing though - Wall Street is actually getting pretty cautious about the next decade. JPMorgan analysts are expecting only 6.7% annual returns going forward. Goldman Sachs is even more conservative at 6.5% for the S&P 500. That's less than half what we've seen recently. They're citing tariff concerns and the fact that valuations are genuinely stretched by historical standards.

So the stock market performance last 10 years was exceptional, but it probably shouldn't be your baseline for expectations. That's the reality check nobody wants to hear, but it matters. The consensus seems to be that future returns will be more muted - somewhere between 3% and 10% depending on which scenario plays out.

Personally, I've always thought mixing index funds with a few individual stock picks makes sense. Gives you the safety net of broad market exposure but also lets you take shots at outperformance if you do your homework. The stock market performance last 10 years proved that tech-heavy portfolios could deliver outsized gains, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to continue. Worth thinking about as you position for whatever comes next.