A ceasefire agreement has been signed for two weeks, and oil prices are falling first—WTI plunges 15%, breaking below $100. Turns out, the "war premium" was worth at least 15 points, and it’s being wiped out just like that.

But interestingly, while oil prices are dropping, gold and Bitcoin are rising together. Gold is now trading at $4,811, and Bitcoin has also increased by 5.5%, reaching $72,460.

Oil prices fall, gold rises, Bitcoin rises—this script is completely opposite to the textbook. In theory, with geopolitical tensions easing, safe-haven assets should decline, but gold continues to follow its own path. This can only mean one thing: the market fundamentally doesn’t believe this ceasefire will last two weeks.

The US and Israel bomb Iran’s infrastructure (highways, bridges, refineries, Halek Island), Iran retaliates by attacking Saudi-American petrochemical complexes and US military bases. The "10-point plan" versus the "15-point plan," both sides are posturing at the negotiation table while continuing to flex muscles behind the scenes.

If Brent crude hits $140? That’s a number only seen during truly chaotic times. Now that a ceasefire agreement is signed, everyone is betting: if negotiations collapse in two weeks, that 15% drop in oil prices will bounce back with interest. The market isn’t pricing "now," it’s betting on "the next disappointment."#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $ZEC