Some central banks sell off gold, drawing attention. What is the future value of holdings?

Jingjing Reporter Tan Zijuan, Beijing report

Recently, actions by some central banks such as Turkey and Russia selling gold have drawn market attention.

Data released by the Central Bank of Turkey on April 2 show that, to address energy shortages triggered by conflicts in the Middle East and pressure from depreciation of the local currency, within nearly two weeks up to March 28, the country’s gold reserves declined sharply by nearly 120 metric tons.

Earlier, in early March, the Central Bank of Poland proposed selling part of its holdings of about 550 metric tons of gold reserves to raise as much as 48 billion zlotys (about US$13 billion) for supporting defense construction.

In addition, according to statistics from the World Gold Council, the Russian central bank sold a cumulative total of 15 metric tons of gold in the first two months before 2026. Of this, it sold 9 metric tons in January, becoming the largest net seller of gold that month; in February it continued to be a net seller, selling another 6 metric tons.

Yongmeng Yu, general manager of China Peng Futures, said in an interview with reporters from 《China Business News》 that: “Some central banks’ gold selling is a temporary measure and does not represent a fundamental reversal of the global central bank gold-buying trend. Each country’s selling reflects its own specific needs: Turkey is ‘swapping gold for foreign exchange’ to cope with liquidity pressure and local currency depreciation; Poland and Russia are doing so to make up for fiscal spending or deficits. From a global perspective, central banks worldwide still maintain a net gold-buying stance, and the long-term positioning of gold as a core strategic asset has not changed.”

Huang Jiaq/ Huang Jiaq, a precious metals analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, noted that some central banks selling gold are not profit-seeking commercial behavior, but rather a choice to maintain stability in the domestic financial environment under the impact of events in the Middle East; the degree of impact varies among countries.

Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that this round of selling by a small number of “non-core” central banks such as Turkey and Russia is “tactical” deleveraging carried out based on “following the trend” and “temporarily easing fiscal crises.”

In fact, in recent years, central banks worldwide have been eager to increase their gold holdings. Data from the World Gold Council show that from 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased gold for three consecutive years with annual average amounts exceeding 1,000 metric tons, about double the annual average purchase amount of the preceding decade. Although gold purchases fell back to 863 metric tons in 2025, they still remained at a historical high.

It is worth noting that, according to data released by China’s central bank on April 7, at the end of March China’s gold reserves were 74.38 million ounces, up by 0.16 million ounces from 74.22 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that as the Middle East situation pushes up international oil prices and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts cool off, in March the international gold price saw double-digit declines, which may be one of the direct reasons for some central banks to accelerate their gold buying. At the same time, the worsening geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also an important driving factor.

Interviewed experts generally believe that the long-term upward trend of gold has not changed, and it still offers relatively high investment value.

Guolian Minsheng Securities said that the main trend of “gold rising in the long run” has not changed. The reason is that in March, global central banks were still in a net buying position for gold; the trimming by a few central banks will not change the main theme of “central bank gold buying.” After the outbreak of conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, by March 2026 global central bank gold purchases reached 14.7 metric tons. Of this, the euro area became the main buyer that month, with purchases of 43.1 metric tons, and the size of other central banks’ gold increases was also far higher than the scale of reductions by Turkey and Russia. Moreover, against the backdrop of a weakening dollar credit, although some central banks’ gold selling in February to March 2026 caused short-term fluctuations in gold prices, the upward trend of gold may not yet have been reversed.

Yu Mengguo said that geopolitical risks and asset allocation needs have not undergone fundamental changes, so gold still has value for allocation in the long term. In the short term, gold prices may move sideways and form a base, with volatility somewhat increasing.

Based on this, Yongmeng Yu recommends that investors focus on long-term allocation opportunities while also doing a good job of risk management. Strategies such as phased dollar-cost averaging and take-profit/stop-loss can be used, and investors may also reasonably consider tactical allocation opportunities in related assets such as gold mining companies and silver.

(Edit: Hao Cheng; Review: Zhu Ziyun; Proofread: Zhai Jun)