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ETH daily return +0.41%: On-chain activity surge and changes in capital flow structure drive oscillating upward movement
2026-04-07 00:00 to 2026-04-08 00:00 (UTC), the ETH price recorded a +0.41% return, with a trading range amplitude of 0.69%, as quotes hovered between 2105.66 and 2120.3 USDT. Both daily trading activity and volatility increased significantly, drawing market attention. The main driver behind this sudden move was a sharp short-term surge in the number of active addresses on-chain, which rose 47.29% in a single day, boosting real on-chain economic activity by about 21%. While some of the additional activity can be attributed to dust attacks and address poisoning (accounting for about 26% of the total active addresses), actual user and application demand remains elevated. Coupled with the contract call costs dropping after the Fusaka upgrade, it has driven improvements in on-chain liquidity and market confidence. In addition, the inflow structure of ETF and institutional capital showed marginal cooling; some funds chose to take short-term profits, intensifying the market’s long-versus-short game. The institutional holding cost range (1700–2900 USD) provides clear support to the price. Meanwhile, the rebound in the U.S. dollar index and its synchronization with global macro liquidity pressure have suppressed the pace of new capital entering, strengthening near-term volatility. On-chain abnormal trading, ecosystem activity improvements, and macro events overlapping have amplified the price performance in this cycle. It is necessary to be cautious about how abnormal on-chain activity may interfere with the interpretation of indicators. In particular, if non-economic behaviors such as dust attacks are not effectively addressed, they could affect market confidence. Institutional capital inflows are marginally weak; if subsequent incremental capital proves insufficient, there is a risk of an ETH pullback. Keep an eye on the institutional holding range, on-chain net inflows, macro news, and changes in the U.S. dollar index. Near-term volatility and potential support-level breakdown will be key observation points. It is recommended to continue monitoring on-chain activity governance and funding-structure dynamics to obtain more real-time market information.