Just noticed cocoa futures are getting hammered today. May NY cocoa down over 5% and London cocoa hitting fresh 2.75-year lows. We're now seven weeks into a downtrend and honestly the supply situation is brutal.

Global cocoa stocks are sitting at 1.1 MMT, up 4.2% year-over-year, and forecasters are calling for massive surpluses heading into 2025/26. StoneX put out numbers showing 287,000 MT excess supply coming, while Rabobank just cut their estimate to 250,000 MT. Meanwhile ICE inventories just hit a 5.75-month high. West Africa's having great growing conditions too, which is the last thing the market needs right now.

The real killer though? Demand is basically dead. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume last quarter because chocolate's pricing people out. European cocoa grinding fell 8.3% year-over-year in Q4, which was way worse than expected. Even chocolate makers like Mondelez are seeing pod counts 7% above the five-year average. Ghana and Ivory Coast both cut their farm prices by 30-35%, trying to move inventory, but buyers still aren't interested at those levels.

There are some bright spots though. Ivory Coast production is expected to fall 10.8% next season, and their port shipments are actually down 3.7% so far. Nigeria's also looking at an 11% production drop. But honestly, when you're looking at cocoa futures and barchart data, those gains barely offset the supply glut. The market's basically screaming oversupply until demand picks up.