S&P Global: Massive AI Spending Faces Numerous Headwinds, Major Stock Market "Correction" May Still Be Ahead

Ask AI · What factors could trigger the stock market correction flagged by S&P Global?

On March 31, Caixin (Edited by Zhou Ziyi) Melissa Otto, research director at Visible Alpha, a financial technology provider under S&P Global, said that the large-scale investment in artificial intelligence that previously supported all-time highs in the stock market is now running into major obstacles, as the Middle East crisis has cast a shadow over both economic growth prospects and energy cost prospects.

According to the company, before the outbreak of the war in Iran, tech giants Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta had planned to invest about $635 billion in 2026 for data centers, chips, and other artificial intelligence infrastructure. That figure is up from $383 billion the previous year, and in 2019 it was only $80B.

In this regard, Otto noted that although these tech giants have not yet said they would cut these capital investments, persistently high oil prices may force companies to adjust their spending plans in the first and second quarters, thereby leading to “a truly meaningful, broad-based adjustment across all stock markets.”

In an interview on Monday (March 30), she pointed out, “I think if the capital expenditure data comes in lower, that could become a trigger for (the stock price adjustment).”

The frenzy over artificial intelligence had driven global stock markets to break through the high point of 2025 right at the start of 2026, and expectations for the trend have grown increasingly optimistic. But since this conflict broke out in the Middle East, that enthusiasm has been gradually fading.

At the same time, energy costs are also becoming a constraint, because data centers require a large amount of electricity—making the operation of artificial intelligence depend on electricity prices and the capacity of infrastructure.

At the CERAWeek energy conference held last week, oil company executives warned that risks on the supply side have not fully been reflected in prices.

Otto said this has raised concerns about prices rising further, and that such an increase would have knock-on effects on the global economy.

She added, “We’re seeing this major problem around global economic growth. Because if energy prices rise by 30%, that will affect consumers—and it will also affect businesses.”

(Caixin, Zhou Ziyi)