Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News update, on April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. Meanwhile, the February figure was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026, the report provided near-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick battle” plot that Trump was aiming for is beginning to fall apart. The market’s more critical tests are also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is set to be released, inflation may run rampant, and some have warned that “this is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all Beijing time): Monday 22:00, U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver remarks on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (year-over-year), the U.S. February personal spending (month-over-month), the final reading of the U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final reading of the U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate, the final reading of the U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index (month-over-month); Friday 20:30, U.S. March unadjusted CPI (year-over-year)/core CPI (year-over-year), and U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (month-over-month)/core CPI (month-over-month). Friday 22:00, the initial estimate of U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and the U.S. February factory orders (month-over-month) (source: PANews)