Been thinking about Alphabet's longer-term trajectory, and there's actually a pretty interesting case to be made for where this stock could head by 2030.

So here's what's happening right now. Alphabet's throwing massive amounts of capital into AI infrastructure and data centers -- we're talking about $85 billion for 2025 alone. That's aggressive spending, no question. But here's the thing that caught my attention: the financial results are actually holding up really well despite that capex push. In Q2 2025, revenue hit $96.4 billion (up 14%) and operating margin stayed solid at 32.4%. Google Cloud is the real story here -- that segment jumped 32% to $13.6 billion in revenue, which tells you AI infrastructure demand is legit.

The company also managed to return $13.6 billion to shareholders through buybacks in just that one quarter, plus they raised their dividend by 5%. So you've got this rare combination: heavy investment in the future plus strong current returns. That's the setup that makes a reasonable alphabet stock price prediction for 2030 worth working through.

Let me walk through the math. Take the trailing 12-month earnings per share at roughly $9.39. Now assume revenue grows about 12% annually for the next five years and operating margins stay around where they are. Under that scenario, earnings per share should compound at a similar rate, landing you around $16.50 by 2030. Slap a 25x price-to-earnings multiple on that (which feels reasonable for a quality tech company), and you're looking at an alphabet stock price prediction of around $415 for 2030. From where things stand now, that's roughly high-single-digit to low-double-digit annual returns before dividends.

Obviously there are moving parts here. Other income has been boosted by investment gains lately, and that can swing around. Depreciation will also climb as all this capex flows through the income statement, which could pressure margins. But the buyback program and expanding cloud margins could offset those headwinds pretty well.

The risks I'm watching: traffic acquisition costs in search, regulatory pressure on search economics, and just the general competitive intensity as everyone piles into generative AI. Those are real things that could derail the thesis.

But stepping back, this alphabet stock price prediction assumes fairly conservative fundamentals -- steady double-digit revenue growth, operating margins staying in the low 30s, and a mid-20s P/E ratio. If Alphabet can execute on its AI roadmap while keeping capex disciplined, the 2030 target seems pretty reasonable. The recent quarterly results suggest they're actually on that path, which is why I think this is worth paying attention to.