The stock price has fallen for 12 consecutive weeks! Today Shiyingyuan's March research record may reveal the truth behind the adjustment.

12 consecutive weeks of declines in 2026, with the full-year drop as high as 25.7%! Without realizing it, the former regional strong brand in baijiu is now facing a decisive exit of capital. After the first trading day following the Qingming Festival, Jiangsu Jinyiyuan Liquor Co., Ltd. released the 《Investor Visit and Reception Record Form》 (March 2026). In this round of survey responses to the outside world, it seems possible to find the true reason behind Jinyiyuan’s stock price, which has been falling relentlessly.

Improvement expectations may come after the second quarter

On the evening of April 7, Jinyiyuan announced its March institutional research records. Over the past month, a total of 59 institutions—including Boshi Fund, E Fund, Penghua Fund, Guangfa Fund, China Merchants Fund, Guotai Junan Securities, and CITIC Jianrui Securities—held business communications with Jinyiyuan’s Secretary of the Board of Directors, Wang Weidong.

A reporter from the 《Economic Daily News · Jiangjinjiu》 noted that in this round of research, Jinyiyuan answered 28 questions from institutions in total. Jinyiyuan believes that in the short term, the baijiu industry may not yet have fully bottomed out. As for the company itself, Jinyiyuan maintains relatively good growth rates online channels and the markets outside the province, but the expected timing for the core single products to resume growth is after the second quarter.

Wang Weidong said that from the perspective of sales, the baijiu industry may not yet have fully bottomed out in the short term, but because the population base is huge, it is already fairly close to the bottom. Future consumption trends will be characterized by: drinking frequency may increase, but the amount consumed per time will decrease; consumption motivation will shift from “social drinking accompanied by others” to “self-fulfillment drinking for one’s own enjoyment.” With changes in social activities, scenarios in which people drink independently or try to please themselves within small circles will become more common. This is, in essence, a natural return of baijiu as a daily consumer spending item. For groups that have consumption ability, baijiu is gradually evolving into a normalized way of consuming that fits daily life rhythms and pairs with meals for self-enjoyment. The resilience of this demand will support the industry’s long-term survival.

Of course, the question institutions care about most is when Jinyiyuan’s operations can reverse. When asked, “How are the current market performances of the company’s core single products—Kai, Si Kai, and Dan Ya?” Wang Weidong stated that Guo Yuan Dan Ya performs well and has maintained year-on-year growth for many consecutive years. Si Kai and Dui Kai have declined year-on-year but improved quarter-on-quarter; after entering the second quarter, they are expected to return to a growth trend.

Regarding changes in product price tiers and consumption scenarios, Wang Weidong also said, “Under the current market environment, products at different price ranges show structural differentiation. Specifically, the company’s high-end and mid-to-high-end products face pressure year-on-year, but they are expected to reverse after the second quarter. Meanwhile, low-to-mid-price products such as the Dan Ya series for mass consumption and the single Kai series have demonstrated stronger demand resilience.”

In addition, “With the consumer environment entering a new normal, the year-on-year structure in the second and third quarters will improve to some extent, but the magnitude will not be large, and it is impossible to return to how it was before. Illegal behaviors are still subject to strict regulation. However, normal gatherings of friends and relatives and compliant social activities are recovering. We expect that after the second quarter, revenues will achieve positive year-on-year growth.” Jinyiyuan’s Secretary of the Board, Wang Weidong, said as much.

From the three-part Q&A description of Jinyiyuan, it is not difficult to see that currently the company’s operating revenue and net profit are still on a negative growth trend. Although this is consistent with the current industry environment for baijiu, its resilience to withstand the downturn of the cycle has weakened, resulting in reduced stock price attractiveness.

12 straight weeks of decline fades the “dark horse” spotlight

In fact, if we were to say who has been the most dazzling star in the baijiu market over the past five years, besides the leading light-aroma type liquor giant Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinyiyuan is definitely an outstanding representative among second- and third-tier liquor enterprises. Like Fenjiu, it not only can maintain stable growth in performance, but its stock price has also remained at historically high-level oscillation, showing excellent anti-cyclical capability.

According to data statistics, between 2021 and 2023, Jinyiyuan’s annual net profit growth rate has remained around 25%. During the same period, most liquor companies have already started to enter an operating turning point, moving from slowing net profit growth to net profit turning negative.

In 2024, many liquor companies began to expose operating problems, while Jinyiyuan “matched” Maotai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu. Its net profit maintained an 8.8% year-on-year growth rate. Although the growth rate slightly declined, performance still remained stable. In the first quarter of 2025, Jinyiyuan’s net profit grew 7.27% year-on-year, and it was still among the best in second- and third-tier liquor enterprises.

Precisely because of this boost from stable performance growth, since 2021, Jinyiyuan’s stock price trend has remained firm. From 2021 to 2024, for four consecutive years, the annual stock price decline was kept within 6%. Over the four years combined, the cumulative decline was less than 20%. Its stock price performance was only second to Yingjia Gongjiu and Guizhou Moutai, making it the third-best company in the entire baijiu industry (excluding *ST Yanshi). During this period, 9 baijiu stocks had cumulative declines exceeding 35%.

However, in the second quarter of 2025, Jinyiyuan’s operating conditions took a sharp turn for the worse. In the second quarter alone, net profit declined 37% year-on-year; in the third quarter alone, net profit declined 49% year-on-year. At the same time, revenue also saw a major decline in these two quarters.

Due to the drastic “face-changing” of performance, Jinyiyuan’s stock price also stopped holding firm. From the second quarter of 2025 to now, Jinyiyuan’s cumulative decline has reached 50%. In 2026, except for the increase in the first week, Jinyiyuan’s stock price has been falling for 12 consecutive weeks, and it has hit a new low in the past nearly 6 years.

Industry analysts pointed out that, as a benchmark company among the prior second- and third-tier baijiu group, Jinyiyuan’s double major drop in both performance and stock price not only breaks its long-standing logic of anti-cyclical growth, but also reflects new changes in the baijiu industry’s deep adjustment period. Against the backdrop of increasing divergence within the industry and underwhelming demand recovery on the consumer side, even liquor companies whose performance had been steady previously have a hard time staying unaffected, and the growth pressure on regional liquor companies is becoming more prominent.

（Source: Economic Daily News）