Aluminum prices surge, these aluminum companies see significant growth in Q1 performance

Due to the rise in electrolytic aluminum prices, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933), Tianshan Aluminum Industry (002532), and other aluminum producers saw a significant increase in their first-quarter performance this year. At the same time, against the backdrop of the ongoing escalation of the situation in the Middle East in recent days, domestic and international institutions have largely turned bullish on the next leg of aluminum prices, with expectations that aluminum prices may climb to $4,000 per metric ton.

With aluminum prices staying high, electrolytic aluminum companies report good news one after another

On April 7, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. disclosed an announcement stating that it expects net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first quarter of 2026 to be 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 217.68%.

The company said that during the reporting period, factors such as a year-on-year rise in the sales price of its electrolytic aluminum products and a year-on-year decline in the price of key raw material—alumina—substantially enhanced the profitability of its electrolytic aluminum segment.

Tianshan Aluminum Industry’s performance pre-announcement released on the evening of March 29 indicated that the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders for the first quarter of 2026 to be 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.92%. The reasons for the sharp growth in performance include: the partial commissioning of capacity from its 1.4 million-ton electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon energy-efficiency improvement project, with electrolytic aluminum production and sales rising year on year by about 10%; meanwhile, the year-on-year increase in the sales price of electrolytic aluminum products was about 17%, and its production costs were effectively controlled, resulting in a year-on-year decline.

According to the latest monitoring data from Fubao Information, the March monthly average price of electrolytic aluminum was 24,388 yuan per ton, up 4.29% month over month, with a monthly increase of 1,003 yuan per ton. On March 9, the price broke above 25k yuan per ton, setting a record high.

Industry data show that as of March 31, the average profitability in China’s electrolytic aluminum industry reached 8,565.28 yuan per ton, up 687.61 yuan per ton from the previous month, with a month-over-month increase of 8.73% and a year-on-year increase of 116.61%. Driven by high profits, the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to exceed expectations. At the end of 2025, SMM expected the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply in 2026 to reach 1.7%; by the end of the first quarter of 2026, SMM expected that growth rate had already risen to 1.9%.

Aluminum producers in the Middle East are targeted; aluminum prices may surge to $4,000/ton

The latest news indicates that on March 28, Emirates Global Aluminum Company said that its plant in Abu Dhabi was attacked by Iran. On March 29, Bahrain Aluminum Company also confirmed that some of its facilities were attacked by Iran.

Affected by the continued escalation of the Middle East situation, domestic and international institutions have expressed concerns about aluminum price supply, and many have become bullish on the next direction of aluminum prices. Among them, a Citibank analyst had previously predicted that if the supply situation deteriorates, aluminum prices could rise to $4,000 per ton, higher than the current level of about $3,300 per ton.

According to SMM analysis, one of the decisive factors currently driving global electrolytic aluminum supply-demand fundamentals and price trends is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Overseas electrolytic aluminum has reduced output (including in Mozambique), together with the presence of substantial capacity reduction risks of more than 3 million tons. If this portion of capacity reduction is confirmed going forward, overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to maintain a prolonged year-on-year negative growth, and global electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are expected to face a sizable gap, with the overseas gap far exceeding the domestic one. Under these circumstances, aluminum prices both at home and abroad are expected to rise strongly again, and the aluminum price trend is expected to keep a pattern in which overseas outperforms domestic markets.

Regarding the market outlook, Tianshan Aluminum Industry said during an earlier research interview that domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached the industry’s “ceiling,” and combined with overseas constraints from tight power supplies, electrolytic aluminum supply at the production end is becoming increasingly tight. At the same time, developments in fields such as new energy (solar power, new energy vehicles, and energy storage), power new infrastructure, and others will bring significant demand to the aluminum industry, and the industry’s fundamentals will keep improving. With the “dual carbon” goal pushing the industry toward green development, optimizing the energy mix and reducing energy use and carbon emissions have become long-term main themes. In addition, given that the dependence on imported bauxite is over 70%, the ability to secure upstream resources will become increasingly important.

（Source: Shanghai Securities News）