Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-07T21:04:19+00:00

ME News Report, April 4th (UTC+8): The United States released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs added, well above expectations. Additionally, the February data was revised from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. This report, amid the reduced probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, provided short-term support for the dollar. The Iran war enters its sixth week, and the quick resolution scenario involving Trump is beginning to collapse. The market's more critical test is also approaching: the first CPI report since the outbreak of war is about to be released, and inflation may surge. Some warn that "now is not the time to trade." Here are the key market focus points for the upcoming week (all times Beijing time): - Monday 22:00: US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday 23:00: US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations - Wednesday 00:35: FOMC voting member for 2027, Chicago Fed President

MeNews

2026-04-07 21:04:19

ME News message, April 4 (UTC+8). On Friday, the United States released its non-farm payrolls report, showing the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. At the same time, February’s data were revised from the originally estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026, the report provided near-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “Trump resolves it quickly” script is beginning to fall apart. The market’s more crucial test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak is about to be released. Inflation could run out of control; some people have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (year-over-year), the U.S. February personal spending (month-over-month), the final reading of the U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized (quarter-over-quarter), the final reading of the U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures (quarter-over-quarter), the final reading of the U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized (quarter-over-quarter), and the U.S. February core PCE price index (month-over-month); Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year / core CPI year-over-year, and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month / core CPI month-over-month. Friday 22:00, the initial value of the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and the U.S. February factory orders month-over-month (source: PANews)

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