Goldman Sachs lowers its 2026 copper price forecast, expecting the market surplus to expand.

Ask AI · Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices will fall—how do energy factors affect the global economy?

Source: Global Markets Broadcast

On Monday, Goldman Sachs said it expects a larger surplus in the global copper market in 2026 and lowered its copper price forecast, citing weaker demand growth driven by an energy-fueled slowdown in the global economy.

The firm said it now expects a surplus of 490k metric tons of refined copper in 2026, higher than its prior estimate of 380k metric tons, and it also cut its 2026 average copper price forecast from $12,850 per ton to $12,650.

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for 2026 global refined copper demand growth from 2.0% to 1.6%. Previously, the firm’s economists estimated that higher energy prices could reduce the global GDP growth rate by 0.4 percentage points.

The firm said copper demand resilience remains stronger than that of other metals, reflecting copper’s growing strategic and structural importance.

With production assumptions kept unchanged, weaker demand prospects will lead to a sharp increase in inventories; it expects markets outside the United States to move close to supply-demand balance, which would bring the year-over-year change in copper prices down by nearly 2 percentage points.

In the near term, Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain volatile because the market is assessing how tensions in the Middle East will affect economic growth.

Assuming energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume starting in mid-April and the Federal Reserve cuts rates twice later this year, the firm predicts that copper prices will average $12,700 in the second quarter of 2026, then decline to a “fair value” of $12,000 in the second half of the year.

Goldman Sachs said that if energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for an extended period, energy prices would rise and further weigh on economic growth; the risks would be skewed to the downside.

Looking beyond 2026–27, Goldman Sachs maintains its view that as supply bottlenecks emerge and demand accelerates driven by electrification and grid investment, copper prices could rise to $15,000 by 2035.