0407: Everyone is waiting until 8 a.m. tomorrow.

That said the harshest thing today—if Iran doesn’t sign a ceasefire agreement, they’ll let the entire civilization disappear completely. I don’t know whether he said that off the cuff or read it from a script. In any case, the moral bottom line of this current U.S. regime has completely collapsed. If someone can say something like that, I thought only Hitler could. [Taoguba]
The deadline is tomorrow morning at 8:00 Beijing time, right when the Asia-Pacific stock markets are starting to open one after another. Earlier tonight, the U.S. and Europe stock markets already jumped for respect, but judging by the intraday trend, it doesn’t look like a panic-driven plunge. It seems most people don’t believe that harsh talk. Sure enough, just moments ago, he spoke again. If there are any progress in the negotiations, maybe tomorrow’s thing won’t happen. The three major U.S. stock indexes immediately made a V-shaped move.
In my view, if the people of Iran truly want to compromise, they wouldn’t wait until the very last moment. So they chose to shut down all diplomatic channels, handing the stage over to the “Special Dog” for a solo performance. Then tomorrow, it can only be the “Special Dog” himself who has to smooth things over. I previously didn’t think something like this would happen, and I even had a bit of hope in Pakistan’s mediation. Now I still don’t think this will happen. But I’m no longer thinking there will be any negotiation results—instead, I’m betting that the “Special Dog” doesn’t have the nerve to do it. He’s acting cocky thanks to the president’s immunity, fearless and unconcerned. But as soon as the midterm elections lose control of both chambers, anything could happen. Don’t look at how lively it is today—be careful, later they may start making a list.
Right now, in this market, besides the disruptions from the situation in the Middle East, it seems like other good and bad news doesn’t really matter. I feel that money isn’t afraid of the Middle East fighting hard—it’s afraid of not knowing whether they’ll fight or not. The “Special Dog” turns defeat into clouds and flips the situation with one hand; he’s churning the world so no one knows what will happen tomorrow. So trading volume is getting lower and lower—other than holding tightly together, there’s nothing else.
I looked at one piece of data today:

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890 points.
But among more than 5,200 stocks in the entire market, more than 2,300 have already had their stock prices lower than the level of 3089 points on April 7, 2025’s closing.
There are even more than 1,700 stocks that are already below the stock price when the index was 2800 points on September 24, 2024.
If they keep fighting tomorrow, I’ll hold off for now.
If one day they really quiet down and the market starts to reverse, there are gold pits everywhere—there’s no need to worry about missing opportunities.

Today’s trades:
Before the holiday, I bought Luobotoke and Saimicroelectronics, made a few points, and sold them out.
Today I newly bought two—Youru Xun for cross-border RMB settlement and Huawei Ascend’s Huafeng Technology. Huafeng Technology is Huawei Ascend’s core supplier of high-speed interconnects for AI servers; its market share is 50%–70%. It’s also the only domestically mass-produced 224G high-speed interconnect supplier for Ascend 950PR / Atlas 350, among the few targets with a relatively good price-volume pattern at the hardware layer—most crucially tied in the deepest way, and with the greatest earnings flexibility. It’s just one limit-up away from its all-time high. The logic is solid, but the market environment isn’t good. During the holiday, the favorable news about Ascend also hasn’t been able to fully ferment.