Everyone, the current Middle East situation is highly uncertain. The deadline at 8 PM on April 7 has passed. Here are roughly four possible scenarios and their impacts:

First, reaching a ceasefire agreement. I personally think this probability is relatively low. There are reports of negotiations for a 45-day temporary ceasefire. If successful, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and oil prices could quickly fall back to $80–$90. Bitcoin may benefit from improved liquidity and break through 75,000, while gold might see a correction!

Second, limited military strikes. If the strikes target bridges, power plants, and similar targets without a full invasion, oil prices will hover between $115–$130. Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between 65,000 and 72,000, and Saudi Arabia won't be able to fill the supply gap, so oil prices will remain supported.

Third, full-scale escalation of conflict. If Iran retaliates against U.S. military bases or blocks the Strait of Mende, Brent crude could surge to $150, Bitcoin could fall below 65,000, and funds will flock into gold as a safe haven, pushing gold prices above $5,000. Even if a ceasefire occurs later, damaged facilities and ongoing supply concerns will keep oil prices high.

Fourth, prolonged stalemate between both sides. I believe this is the most likely scenario. If negotiations fail and no major fighting occurs, the market will remain in a wait-and-see mode. Iran may refuse a permanent ceasefire and not agree to a temporary compromise, and mediators are also pessimistic. The market will likely be stuck oscillating between 67,000 and 70,000, as in previous situations!