US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly rebound, prompting a potential delay in interest rate cuts. Disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising energy costs push up agricultural products. Some central banks' sales do not hinder the long-term rise of gold—0407 Macro Summary

In March, U.S. nonfarm payrolls added more than expected, rebounding to 178k jobs. The education and healthcare industries saw the largest increase as labor strikes ended. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%. In the near term, the Federal Reserve’s focus remains on monitoring inflation risks, and the interest-rate cut window may be delayed.

Driven by disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising energy costs, prices of agricultural products face upward pressure. Despite risk-hedging funds flowing in during the early stage of the conflict, supporting the U.S. dollar in the short term, as stagflation risks intensify, the ECB’s tightening expectations have been stronger than the Fed’s. This has led to widening interest-rate spreads between Europe and the U.S., and the dollar is likely to weaken over the medium to long term.

Since the conflict between Iran and Israel, some central banks have sold gold. There may be follow-the-trend behavior, and central banks may also be forced to sell gold to meet liquidity needs or increase foreign reserves. However, the long-term uptrend in gold has not reversed. In March, global central banks net bought 14.7 tons of gold, and the broader pattern of weakening long-term U.S. dollar credit remains unchanged.