Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-07T00:04:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 4th (UTC+8): The United States released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs added, well above expectations. Additionally, the February data was revised from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. This report, amid the reduced probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, provided short-term support for the dollar. The Iran war enters its sixth week, and the quick resolution scenario involving Trump is beginning to collapse. The market's more critical test is also approaching: the first CPI report since the outbreak of war is about to be released, and inflation may surge. Some warn that "now is not the time to trade." Here are the key market focus points for the upcoming week (all times Beijing time): - Monday 22:00: US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday 23:00: US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations - Wednesday 00:35: FOMC voting member for 2027, Chicago Fed President

MeNews

2026-04-07 00:04:48

ME News update, April 4 (UTC+8). On Friday, the United States released its nonfarm payrolls report, showing that the country added 178,000 jobs, well above expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92,000 to a decrease of 133,000. Against the backdrop of a lower probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar.

The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick victory” script pushed by Trump is now starting to fall apart. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI since the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released, and inflation is feared to spike. Some people have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):

Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI;
Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee will give remarks on monetary policy;
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (year-on-year), the U.S. February personal spending (month-on-month), the final U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the final U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index (month-on-month);
Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI (year-on-year)/core CPI (year-on-year) and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (month-on-month)/core CPI (month-on-month).
Friday 22:00, the initial U.S. April 1-year inflation rate expectation, the initial U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and U.S. February factory orders (monthly) (Source: PANews)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes