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Will 1979 repeat itself? Will the gold rally continue?

While the expectation of war triggered a rise in gold prices, concerns that inflation would force central banks to raise interest rates brought about selling pressure.

A ceasefire on Wednesday could help boost gold prices by reducing the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Fed and the European Central Bank.

The war with Iran is also affecting commodity charts, like cryptocurrencies. The price of gold is at $4,658 per ounce, so what do experts expect? Wednesday is the deadline set by Trump. Either there will be a ceasefire and an agreement, or the US will launch the major offensive it is preparing. Of course, this turning point will also affect the gold chart.

One of the established patterns is that gold rises if there is a war. However, after the attacks on Iran began, gold fell by approximately 24% and tested $4,100. Although it then surpassed $4,800 again, it now remains below that level. While gold prices are expected to rise during times of war, the decline we are currently experiencing in March-April 2026 has several fundamental and technical reasons. So it's not entirely illogical.
Gold had already experienced a significant surge in January and February while the possibility of war was being discussed. When the war actually began, or while active conflict was ongoing, not only did new buyers not emerge, but large investors holding gold began selling to realize their profits (convert to cash). This caused the price to reach saturation and retreat.

The war disrupted not only gold, but also stock markets and the oil market. Investors who suffered significant losses in other investment instruments (stocks, cryptocurrencies, or futures) began using their gold gains as an urgent source of cash.

Another factor was the risk of rising energy prices due to the war triggering inflation. This increase in inflation, which could lead the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts or even pursue a path of rate hikes this year, is bad for gold because if interest rates rise, gold falls. One reason for the prolonged rise in gold was that the Fed had entered the QE phase; monetary expansion was expected to accelerate with the new Fed chairman, but today we see a completely different picture.
Indeed, Friday is expected to see US headline inflation rise by 1% monthly, or even more.

Therefore, a ceasefire on Wednesday could benefit gold, as it reduces the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Fed and the European Central Bank.

Analysts are painting a similar picture for gold today, reflecting the optimism generated by the rise in cryptocurrencies.

Rashad Hajiyev says he targets $7500 for gold and $300 for silver.

Jami, on the other hand, stated that during the 1979 Iran-Iraq war, when oil prices doubled, gold experienced a significant drop due to the crisis, and that the same thing is likely to happen now.

On the other hand, gold is currently traded more than most major financial assets in the world. Interest is quite strong. Last year, the average daily gold trading volume was approximately $361 billion. This represents a nearly threefold increase compared to $134 billion in 2021. Currently, gold's official trading volume is $169 billion, compared to $186 billion for Treasury Bonds.
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