ETF Daily Report: Short-term gold prices may fluctuate amid multiple factors, but the previous sharp decline has already released significant risks, and the current environment may gradually open a window for allocation.

Today, China’s A-share market is broadly strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.46% to 3948.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.70%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, and the STAR Market Composite Index rose 3.44%. The total turnover across the whole market was 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 19 billion yuan versus the prior trading day. At the sector level, innovative drugs led the gains, with notable increases in chip-related and gold-related themes; previously, leading high-quality coal and green power saw declines. In terms of risk appetite, today’s risk appetite is relatively strong. Nearly 4,500 stocks across the whole market finished higher. Style-wise, small-caps outperformed large-caps but micro-caps were on the weaker side; growth outperformed value, and the dual-innovation market outperformed the main board. Overall, today’s risk appetite is in a relatively strong state.

Today, the innovative drugs sector was active. The STAR Market innovative drugs ETF (589720) surged 7.42%, the Hang Seng Biomedical Technology ETF (520930) rose 6.41%, and the Innovative Drugs ETF (517110) jumped 5.79%.

Panic sentiment eased, liquidity warmed up somewhat, which may drive an oversold rebound in the 20cm high-volatility STAR Market innovative drugs ETF, the Hang Seng Biomedical Technology ETF with innovative drugs core leaders plus high volatility & high Sharpe, and the Innovative Drugs ETF that allows one-click exposure to innovative-drug companies in the Greater China (Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong) market. As of March 27, 2026 has seen 10 innovative drugs approved for上市, including 8 domestically developed innovative drugs, setting a new record for the same period in history. In terms of performance, innovative-drug A+H leaders’ annual reports are nearing the end of their release cycle; a batch of innovative-drug companies turned profitable for the first time, multiple companies’ net profits more than doubled, commercialization volume of core pipeline products was successfully realized, and cash flow has continued to improve—many performance highlights have emerged.

On the news front, the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting will be held in San Diego, the United States, from April 17-22, 2026. This year, more than 100 Chinese pharmaceutical companies will appear at AACR, bringing nearly 400 research achievements, covering multiple current popular targets and several cutting-edge technologies.

Due to liquidity shocks caused by global geopolitical conflict and the earlier buildup of expectations for interest-rate hikes, A/H valuations of the sector are still at a historical position on the low side of the range from early April 2025, before the market breakout. A turnaround in earnings for leading companies and improved cash flow may provide left-side support for the sector. Previously, the allocation ratio of publicly offered mutual funds across the whole market to pharmaceuticals and biologicals (especially innovative drugs) fell to an extremely low historical percentile, leaving the sector’s positioning relatively clean. Since last Friday, some funds have flowed back into innovative drugs; during this week’s high market volatility, it has shown strong resilience and downside resistance. This may reflect that the sector’s prior correction has already priced in favorable risk-reward characteristics, and capital is willing to participate in a repair driven by solid fundamentals combined with low valuations.

Interestingly, last year on April 1, the innovative drugs sector also rallied strongly. At that time, innovative drugs received multiple positive catalysts: dense settlement of BD orders, improvement in financial performance for leading companies, and several pharmaceutical companies achieving high revenue growth or turning profitable. After a prolonged four-year period of dullness, the innovative drugs sector finally saw a reversal.

Looking back at the present, the external environment still contains uncertainties. In the short term, the innovative drugs sector may continue to move upward in a range-bound manner. Investors who are interested may consider paying attention to changes in liquidity and risk appetite, and gradually building positions in batches on pullbacks.

Today, the gold price continues its upward trend, and international spot gold has broken through the $4,700 level. The Gold ETF (Cathay) (518800) has seen share growth for 5 consecutive trading days.

As the market expects that the Middle East conflict can end quickly, risk appetite in financial markets continues to recover, providing support for the rebound in gold prices. On the news front, U.S. President Trump has recently repeatedly hinted that he will end military actions in Iran and predicted that the war will be over within two to three weeks, sending signals of a phase of easing in the Middle East situation. This week’s core driver remains the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report to be released on Good Friday. In addition, if tonight’s ADP employment data comes in weaker than expected, it could further weigh on the U.S. dollar and lift gold prices.

Goldman Sachs noted in a research report that the market’s reaction to an oil shock has been excessive, as it is betting that the Federal Reserve will roll out tightening policies; but based on historical experience, this situation is unlikely to occur. Revisiting the 1990 oil crisis, when the economy faced an oil supply shock, bond market yields surged sharply. Investors widely bet that the Federal Reserve would tighten policy, but in the end the Fed went the other way and chose to cut rates when economic conditions deteriorated. Current inflation is a supply-side shock, not an overheating on the demand side. Goldman Sachs believes the Federal Reserve may ignore supply-side inflation pressures and therefore will not tighten monetary policy because of them. Goldman maintains a bullish view on gold, forecasting that by the end of 2026 the gold price will rise to $5,400 per ounce.

With uncertainty still present in the external environment, the evolution of the Middle East conflict and the policy path of the Federal Reserve remain the key variables going forward. In the short term, the gold price may swing back and forth among multiple factors, but the sharp selloff earlier has already priced in a considerable amount of risk. It may now gradually enter a position where allocation is more appropriate. Investors who are interested can pay attention to the gold ETF (518800), gradually build positions in batches on pullbacks, and capture the medium- to long-term allocation value of gold assets.

Today, as the stock market remained strong throughout the day, long-term interest rates and long bonds pulled back again. The T contract is approaching the prior resistance level, and the TL pullback has been limited. We believe that today’s disturbance is mostly due to sentiment factors causing a stock-bond “see-saw,” and it does not constitute a long-term bullish or bearish factor, so there is no need to be overly worried. On the news front, as Trump said he would “withdraw from Iran within 2-3 weeks,” international oil prices fell accordingly, and global sluggishness…

…as recession expectations ease, risk assets have received a round of rebound.

But it seems China’s long-term bonds are not “a safe-haven asset.” If sluggishness expectations ease, yields should logically fall, but today yields are rising again. We believe that the bond market is in a stage of “muting the positives” in a low odds environment—i.e., the market lacks faith in holding long-term, making it easy to be disturbed by short-term negative news: for example, when oil prices spike, investors focus more on the risk of sluggishness than recession risk; but when oil prices fall back, they worry more about an improvement in fundamentals rather than relief from inflation. Therefore, in the medium- to long-term horizon, we still recommend that investors focus on steady instruments with moderate duration, such as the Treasury Bond ETF (511010) and the 10-year Treasury Bond ETF (511260). In the current environment, the risk-reward of overexposure to interest-rate risk is limited.

If the situation in Iran truly moves toward easing, long-term bonds will return to a stage mainly priced by domestic needs, while still maintaining a narrow-range consolidation. From the perspective of financing demand, social financing remains weak. From the perspective of prices, after stripping out the disturbance from oil prices, we believe de-involution plus a slow recovery in domestic demand will still drive CPI to rise steadily, which will thicken corporate profits, but only to a limited extent. Therefore, absent any sudden events, the fundamentals are unlikely to provide substantive positive or negative catalysts for the bond market.

Also, from the policy perspective, the central bank still maintains the “countercyclical + cross-cyclical” wording for monetary policy, using it prudently. It also emphasizes maintaining “appropriate pricing relationships,” which implies that the term spread is more likely to rise than fall. This year, the shape of the yield curve may remain steep. If economic recovery turns out to exceed expectations, ultra-long bonds may face some risks. Overall, we believe the core contradiction in the bond market is that the upside is limited and the odds are not attractive enough, leading to a trading environment in which profit-taking and stop-loss behavior is strong, and the market lacks sustained momentum. In the medium to long term, the investment mindset of allocating to bonds is still better than a trading mindset.

Risk warning: Investors should fully understand the differences between fund regular investment plans (including periodic fixed-amount investing) and savings methods such as putting money away once and for all (zero-balance savings). A regular investment plan guides investors to make long-term investments and average investment cost through a simple and feasible approach. However, regular investment plans cannot eliminate the inherent risks of fund investing, cannot guarantee that investors will earn returns, and are not an equivalent wealth-management alternative to savings. Regardless of stock ETFs/LOFs/split-share funds, they are fund products with relatively high expected risk and expected return. Their expected return and expected risk levels are higher than those of hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. When fund assets invest in STAR Market and ChiNext stocks, they face specific risks arising from differences in the underlying investment targets, market systems, and trading rules, among others. Please remind investors to take note. Short-term percentage changes of sectors/funds are shown only as supplementary materials for analyzing viewpoints in the article, and are for reference only and do not constitute a guarantee of fund performance. Any mention of individual stocks’ short-term performance is for reference only and does not constitute stock recommendations, nor does it constitute a prediction or guarantee of fund performance. The above viewpoints are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or a commitment. If you need to purchase related fund products, please review the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, conduct risk assessments in advance, and purchase fund products whose risk level matches your own risk tolerance.

Funds involve risk; invest with caution

Special contributor: Guotai Fund

The MACD golden cross signal has formed—these stocks have a great uptrend! ! !

A massive amount of information and precise interpretation—only on Sina Finance APP

责任编辑：杨红卜