Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | April 7, 2026

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Market Overview

Iran refuses to halt the war proposal; Trump warns that action will be taken on the 7th. U.S. stocks saw a “flash drop” but ultimately closed higher. U.S. oil hits a new nearly four-year high again.

After Trump said Iran could be crushed in a single night, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq refreshed their intraday lows; U.S. oil rose more than 2%. Trump said there are positive and sincere negotiators on Iran’s side and that Iran hopes to reach an agreement with sincerity; whether the war is gradually ended depends on Iran’s actions. The three major U.S. stock indices inched higher, closing at new highs of at least more than two weeks. Chip stocks outperformed the broader market for four straight days; SanDisk and Micron rose more than 3%; AppLovin rose nearly 7%. Private credit storm’s focal point, Blue Owl, saw its share price hit a historical low.

U.S. Treasury prices rebound in the medium to long term. During Trump’s Iran war-related press conference, the U.S. dollar index turned upward in the short term.

Bitcoin rose above $70k intraday, up more than 4% from the day’s low, showing stronger performance than U.S. equities.

Crude oil fell by at least 2% intraday before turning higher, closing with two consecutive green sessions. Gold fell by more than 1% intraday before also turning higher.

Headlines

Trump: Iran’s response to the ceasefire is not good enough—“take the oil.” The final deadline on the 7th cannot be changed; the U.S. should collect the Hormuz toll. Iran can be crushed in a single night—perhaps on the evening of the 7th. If the U.S. destroys it, it only takes four hours. Trump announced details of the pilot rescue: mobilize 176 aircraft of various types, carry out deception operations, and are currently searching for media leakers.

Iran refuses a temporary ceasefire and responds to the U.S. ceasefire proposal with 10 clauses, saying they will keep fighting as long as the leadership deems it appropriate.

The Israeli military says it carried out airstrikes on Iran’s largest petrochemical facilities; the commander of Iran’s “Quds Force” special operations unit was killed.

The U.S. March ISM Services PMI fell to 54; the prices paid component hit a new nearly three-year high and also logged one of the largest increases in about 14 years; the employment index unexpectedly fell into a contraction.

Samsung expects first-quarter operating profit to surge 755%, with quarterly profit exceeding last year’s full-year total.

Broadcom will supply TPU chips to Google and provide compute power for Anthropic; the stock rose 3% after hours.

Regarding when to IPO, there is disagreement inside OpenAI right now: Altman wants it in the fourth quarter, while the CFO believes it is not yet ready. OpenAI released an industry policy white paper for the AI era, calling for establishing a public wealth fund and a rapid-response security safety net.

In the era of “mass programming,” the number of new apps on the Apple App Store in a single quarter surged 84%.

Market Close

U.S. and Europe equities: S&P 500 up 0.44%, at 6611.83 points. Dow up 0.36%, at 46,669.88 points. Nasdaq up 0.54%, at 21,996.337 points.

A-shares: Market closed.

Bond market: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell by 0.99 basis points to 4.3307%. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury rose by 0.41 basis points to 3.8436%.

Commodities: WTI May crude futures closed up 0.78% at $112.41 per barrel. Brent June crude futures closed up 0.68% at $109.77 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.54% to $4651.24 per ounce. Spot silver fell 0.23% to $72.8569 per ounce.

More Details on the Headlines

Global Focus

Trump: Iran’s ceasefire response is not good enough; it must “take the oil.” The final deadline on the 7th cannot be changed; the U.S. should charge the Hormuz transit fee. Trump said that Iran’s proposal is meaningful but not good enough; if Iran does not “back down,” it will end up with nothing. He reiterated that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. When talking about Iranian oil, he said the spoils belong to the winner. He threatened that Iran could be crushed overnight—or on the evening of April 7—if Iran does not “surrender” before 20:00 on the 7th, the U.S. will strike its civilian facilities and can destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges in just four hours. Reports say the 45-day ceasefire proposal the U.S. offered—the one Iran rejected—is only one of many options under discussion; U.S. military action against Iran is still ongoing. U.S. officials said Iran’s response to the U.S. proposal “sets too high a bar.”

Iran refuses a temporary ceasefire and proposes 10 clauses to respond to the U.S. ceasefire offer, saying they will keep fighting as long as the leadership deems it appropriate. According to Iranian media, Iran’s response refuses a ceasefire based on past experience, emphasizing that they must “permanently end the war” while taking Iran’s interests into account. Iran提出 a list of demands, such as ending regional conflicts, setting up a security and safe passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, post-war reconstruction, and lifting sanctions. Iran’s military said it shot down two U.S.-Israeli drones.

Trump announced details of the pilot rescue: mobilize 176 aircraft of all types, carry out deception operations, and are currently searching for media leakers. Trump said the U.S. military successfully rescued the pilot from a plane that was shot down by Iran, with zero casualties in the rescue operation. First, 21 military aircraft were mobilized; in the second rescue, up to 155 aircraft and other aircraft assembled, and two transport planes were destroyed. Anyone who leaked sensitive information of the missing pilot should be imprisoned.

• Loss of 4 helicopters and two MC-130 transport aircraft, and penetrating 300 kilometers deep into Iran—so is this really a “successful” rescue operation, or a “failed” raid that concentrated on the theft of enriched uranium? Penetrating 300 kilometers deep into Iran, destroying 6 aircraft just to rescue a single pilot? The U.S. “most daring” search-and-rescue operation sent shockwaves—what’s Iran really pointing out about the operation site being abnormal, and that it was actually a cover for “stealing enriched uranium.” Behind the extreme strike approaching nuclear facilities, is it simply rescue, or an all-out battle?

The Israeli military says it struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facilities in airstrikes; the commander of Iran’s “Jerusalem Brigade” special operations unit was killed. The Israeli military said it has already carried out strikes against Iran’s two major petrochemical complexes, severely damaging more than 85% of Iran’s petrochemical product export capacity. Iran’s largest petrochemical complex, related facilities in Asalouyeh, is an important raw-material supply hub for Iran’s missile industry. They will continue to intensify strikes on Iran’s core infrastructure for weapon production.

The U.S. March ISM Services PMI fell to 54; the prices paid component hit a nearly three-year high, and also logged one of the biggest increases in about 14 years. The U.S. March ISM Services PMI dropped to 54, below expectations and clearly declined, indicating weakening momentum for growth. Structurally, there is clear divergence: new orders remain strong, but inflation pressure is significantly heating up— the prices paid index surged to the highest level since October 2022 and recorded one of the largest increases in about 14 years. At the same time, the employment index unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, becoming the biggest drag. The Middle East conflict is pushing up energy costs and disrupting supply chains, further intensifying inflation and uncertainty.

Samsung expects first-quarter operating profit to surge by 755%, with quarterly profit exceeding last year’s full-year! Samsung’s first-quarter operating profit was 57.20 trillion Korean won; analysts expected 39.28 trillion Korean won.

Broadcom will supply TPU chips to Google and provide compute power for Anthropic; the stock rose 3% after hours. Broadcom disclosed it reached a long-term agreement with Google, providing customized TPUs and networking equipment for its next-generation AI systems, extending the collaboration to 2031. Meanwhile, it deepens cooperation with Anthropic, providing about 3.5 gigawatts of compute power starting in 2027. The news drove Broadcom’s shares to rise more than 3% after Monday’s close.

Regarding when to IPO, there is currently internal disagreement within OpenAI: Altman wants it in the fourth quarter, while the CFO believes it is not ready yet. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said he hopes to complete the IPO as early as the fourth quarter this year, while CFO Sarah Friar still has doubts about whether the company’s revenue can support its commitment to spend more than $600 billion within five years, and believes the company is not yet qualified to list.

OpenAI released a white paper on industry policy for the AI era, calling for establishing a public wealth fund and a rapid-response security safety net. As superintelligence approaches, how can workers protect themselves? OpenAI’s first major policy proposal: it suggests setting up a “public wealth fund” so the public can share the AI dividend, calls for piloting a four-day workweek, and establishing an on-demand unemployment assistance net. A social transformation concerning wealth redistribution has already begun.

In the era of “mass programming,” the number of new apps on the Apple App Store in one quarter surged 84%. AI programming tools are overturning the app development landscape. Apple App Store’s new apps in Q1 this year grew 84% year over year, reversing the slump of cumulative declines of 48% from 2016 to 2024. Tools for “vibe coding” represented by Claude Code and Codex greatly lower the development threshold, but Apple is stepping up its control over vibe coding apps.

Private credit storm center Blue Owl’s share price hit a historical low. Blue Owl’s shares fell 1.4% on Monday to $8.45, ending at a historical low that is below its prior record low set at the end of 2022. Last Thursday, after the company said redemption requests surged, it restricted redemptions of its two private credit funds; on that day, the stock briefly hit a historical intraday low.

There are no signs that pressure in private credit is easing! Goldman Sachs barely keeps the redemption red line, and BlackRock was forced to impose limits. Goldman’s funds had redemption ratios close to the 5% cap in the first quarter, barely avoiding triggering restrictions, while BlackRock’s private funds saw redemption applications as high as 11.3%, forcing the redemption ratio to be capped at 5%.

Selected Research Reports

JPMorgan CEO warns: The Iran war could push up inflation and interest rates. JPMorgan CEO Dimon issued a major annual warning: the oil price shock could become a “party stink bomb,” potentially sparking an inflation rebound, raising rates, and dealing a severe blow to asset prices on both fronts! At the same time, he directly criticized the underwriting deterioration in the private credit market, with risks building under the surface, and sharply questioned how private institutions missed the bullish listing opportunities. Is the financial storm already brewing?

“Influencer AI research institution”: Public data omitted 50% of the real Hormuz throughput. Has the Strait of Hormuz actually opened? A Citreni analyst risked their life to go to the front line and “count the ships” to uncover the truth: the public AIS system reportedly omitted nearly 50% of real traffic! The strait is not simply “open or closed,” but is under “dynamic enforcement” that changes at any time. The global energy and shipping supply chains will face more frequent, less predictable severe fluctuations; moving away from a single data source and leveraging multi-source verification has become a key advantage for winning trades.

Domestic Companies

Luo Fuli: The lobster cost black hole is showing—need an Agent framework with higher token efficiency. Xiaomi MiMo model lead Luo Fuli said that the number of requests generated by OpenClaw is several times that of Claude’s native framework; if billed via API, costs would be dozens of times the subscription price. Anthropic’s blocking of third-party subscription access makes the inefficiency cost visible, which will force developers to improve context management and cut wasted token consumption.

Overseas Macros

Inflation worries combined with expectations of Fed rate cuts weakened—Japan’s 10-year JGB yield rose to a 27-year high. Last Friday’s nonfarm data weakened expectations for Fed rate cuts; ongoing inflation pressure caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict and concerns about Japan’s fiscal expansion pushed Japan’s 10-year JGB yield higher to a 27-year high on Monday. Valuation losses are forcing Japanese institutions to sell overseas risk assets and bring funds back. Meanwhile, higher rates increase pressure for yen appreciation, further weighing on USD-denominated assets.

With 90% of crude oil dependent on Hormuz, Takashi Hayashi seeks talks with Iran’s leadership. Faced with a steep drop in crude oil imports and 43 ships stranded, Prime Minister Hayashi is urgently coordinating at the highest levels of U.S.-Iran. Japan has accelerated efforts to find alternative oil sources and is considering an additional release of national petroleum reserves to fully address the energy supply cut crisis that is imminent.

Iraq notified buyers to pick up the oil themselves, saying its crude can be routed via Hormuz. After Iraq’s exports plunged 97% in March, Iraqi crude finally sees an “exemption” dawn. The government issued an urgent notice to Asian buyers to restart Hormuz Strait pickup. However, the exemption details are unclear, and buyers must face transit risks directly. Asian markets are generally cautious and wait for more; they urgently need Iran to provide more security guarantees. The full recovery of the strait route remains uncertain.

Industries / Themes

1. Space computing power | According to央广网, at the 2026 Space Computing Power Industry Conference held recently, China’s first space computing power industry coordinated collaboration platform, the “Space Computing Power Professional Committee,” was officially established, marking that China’s space computing power industry is entering a new stage of coordinated development. The committee is committed to systematically building the space computing power technology system and industrial ecosystem, focusing on spaceborne AI chips, inter-satellite laser communications, efficient thermal control, and space photovoltaics, and carrying out systematic forward-looking joint technical research; accelerating preliminary research on standards and building the standard system; and for application scenarios such as satellite intelligent agents, disaster emergency response, LEO satellite internet, and deep-space exploration, carrying out innovation proposal collection and pilot validation.

Commentary: Securities Times (中证报) points out that the space computing power track is moving from technology verification toward large-scale deployment and value realization; capacity release is a key variable driving value to jump. At present, the dual boom of national-level LEO computing constellation planning and demand for commercial space applications provides clear and sustained order support for capacity release. Technological innovations such as reusable rockets continue to lower launch and manufacturing costs, removing obstacles to large-scale production. As capacity utilization at leading companies gradually climbs, the space computing satellite industry chain will accelerate the perfect closed-loop conversion of “technology-orders-performance.”

2. Energy storage | The constantly hot global energy storage market is turning battery cells into an unprecedented scarce commodity. According to 21st Century Business Herald (21经济报道), China’s domestic energy storage cell capacity has fully entered a state of supply far outstripping demand; some leading companies already have energy storage cell orders scheduled to the end of Q1 2027. Meanwhile, the spot price of battery cells has rebounded sharply compared with the 2025 low point, and bargaining power in the industry has reversed. At the same time, under the catalytic effect of supply-demand gaps, China’s domestic energy storage cell track has kicked off a new round of capacity expansion. Several companies have announced large-scale expansion plans.

Commentary: Securities Times (中证报) notes that the current situation of “one cell hard to find” in energy storage cells is an inevitable trend for the industry moving from policy-driven development to market-oriented, scaled, and diversified development. The energy storage market is shifting from “emerging technology” to becoming a “core pillar” supporting a new power system; innovations in scenarios such as AI data centers, zero-carbon parks, microgrids in mining areas, and wind/solar-storage-hydrogen are becoming a new growth pole for the energy storage industry. The national level has established a capacity pricing mechanism for grid-side independent new-type energy storage to provide projects with stable “floor returns.” This marks energy storage’s transformation from a “cost center” that previously relied solely on peak-valley price spreads to a “profit center” that can participate in various market transactions.

3. High-voltage electricity | According to CCTV, recently, an international standard proposal initiated by China, 《Direct current filter capacitors for high-voltage direct current transmission systems》, was approved for立項 (in-house filing for initiation) by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). This standard is the first international standard in the field of high-voltage direct current transmission specifically targeting DC filter capacitors, filling the gap in related professional standards.

Commentary: Securities Times (中证报) points out that high-voltage direct current transmission is a strategic technology for handling large-scale and long-distance transmission of renewable energy, and engineering practice cannot be separated from the key product—DC filter capacitors. Based on China’s long-term engineering practice and technological accumulation in the high-voltage direct current transmission field, the standard comprehensively sets technical requirements and testing/design/structure requirements for DC filter capacitors and neutral busbar capacitors used in high-voltage direct current transmission systems, covering key stages across the entire product life cycle. The development of this standard will provide unified technical guidance for equipment selection, manufacturing, operation, and quality control in high-voltage direct current transmission projects worldwide, helping global power systems transition efficiently, safely, and greener, and building a safety barrier for high-voltage direct current transmission.

4. Two-wheelers | According to CCTV Finance and Economics, recently, products such as electric bicycles and electric motorcycles have begun to gain popularity in overseas markets. Domestic companies seize the opportunity, working overtime to rush export orders. A Zhejiang company, some vehicle enterprise Co., Ltd., said that in recent period, the order volume increase has been relatively large—about 30% to 40%. In March, they already shipped more than 6,000 complete electric bicycles; in April, they still need to ship more than 7,000 more units, and production orders are currently booked through July.

Commentary: According to Securities Times (上证报), electric motorcycle production lines are also bustling. In a motorcycle company in Jiangmen, Guangdong, on the first day of the Qingming holiday, the production line was still operating normally. The company负责人 said that their inventory in the Southeast Asian market is nearly sold out and they urgently need replenishment. Multiple motorcycle companies in Jiangmen said that since March, international energy prices have continued to rise, driving both inquiries for electric motorcycles and exports upward. A trade department manager at a motorcycle company in Jiangmen, Guangdong, said that order demand for electric motorcycles has increased significantly; compared with last year, it has already increased by 30%.

5. Foldable screens | According to IT Home, Foxconn is already in pilot production of Apple’s foldable-screen iPhone phones. Previously, Apple provided suppliers with shipment guidance for launching the first foldable-screen phone in the second half of 2026—a large-fold iPhone. In the Chinese market, Apple iPhones are facing dual competitive pressure from domestic smartphone brands in both value-for-money and high-end foldable screen segments. According to Counterpoint data, iPhone’s market share in China has continued to trend downward. Compared with the pure price-cut competition in the low-end market, high-end markets such as foldable screens have become the core breakthrough for Apple to improve its market share going forward.

Commentary: Aijian Securities believes foldable-screen phones are a core innovative category in the smartphone field, with hinge and flexible display modules as the key components that effectively balance the core contradiction between big-screen experience and device portability. Compared with non-foldable phones, the cost incremental mainly concentrates in three areas: display modules (display panel + glass cover), mechanical/electromechanical components (including hinges), and memory. Under an optimistic scenario, Apple’s foldable-screen iPhone sales in 2026 could reach 14 million units. With iPhone’s own premium positioning and huge sales volume, it is expected to drive the entire industry chain into rapid development.

6. AI e-commerce | According to Xinhua Net, on April 6, six departments including the Ministry of Commerce, the Cyberspace Administration of China, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released guidance on better serving the real economy and promoting high-quality development of e-commerce. It mentions supporting leading e-commerce companies to increase R&D investment, strengthen core technology breakthroughs in key areas, and build an “innovation ecosystem of industry-academia research collaboration and learning-application transformation.” Develop “artificial intelligence + e-commerce,” and guide e-commerce companies to strengthen technology R&D and applications such as AI large models, optimize consumer experience, reduce operating costs, and improve distribution efficiency. Encourage e-commerce companies to apply technology for good, and coordinate stakeholders’ interests to optimize algorithm rules.

Commentary: Securities Times points out that e-commerce is an important part of the digital economy—developing rapidly, being highly innovative and active, and having rich applications. It has become a new driver for developing new quality productive forces. At present, e-commerce has become an important driver of China’s economic growth and consumer upgrading, but it also faces new challenges such as structural optimization, regulatory upgrades, and deeper integration with the real economy. The core of the guidance is to promote high-quality development of e-commerce by pushing policy coordination, platform upgrades, and data- element empowerment, further serving real-economy areas such as manufacturing, agriculture, and trade and circulation, to improve overall economic quality and efficiency. With coordinated efforts across multiple departments, it provides institutional safeguards for the regulation and innovation of e-commerce, promotes the improvement and implementation of related e-commerce regulations, accelerates the optimization of standards and the business environment.

7. DRAM | According to IT Home, Samsung Electronics’ DRAM prices for the second quarter will rise by about 30% compared with the first quarter. After price negotiations with its main customers at the end of last month, it has already signed supply contracts. The 30% is the average price increase, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM852) and general DRAM used in servers, PCs, mobile devices, etc. Samsung previously doubled the average DRAM price in the first quarter of 2026.

Commentary: According to TrendForce’s latest memory price survey, in the second quarter of 2026, DRAM foundries will actively shift capacity to HBM and Server applications and adopt a “catch-up” strategy to narrow price gaps among product categories. Although the terminal market faces risks of shipping downgrades, overall general-type DRAM contract prices are still expected to increase by 58–63% quarter over quarter. Industry insiders say that supported by AI demand, there is no sign of improvement or a decline in memory prices. The expansion of AI data centers has led to a memory shortage, and this situation quickly spilled over into the retail market. Many servers use high-bandwidth memory (HBM), causing factories to cut DRAM production capacity commonly used by consumers. As AI agent applications are adopted by smart phones used by enterprises, governments, and individuals, demand for DRAM for inference and computing is exploding.

Outlook for Today’s Headlines

China’s March foreign exchange reserves.

Eurozone and the U.K. March services and composite PMI.

U.S. February orders for durable goods.

Remarks by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee.

EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Changzheng-8 (Y) variant launch scheduled for April 7.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer Terms

        There are risks in the market; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, and it has not considered any individual user’s special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. If you invest based on this, you assume responsibility.