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Just noticed something interesting about the George Tritch economic cycle theory that's been making rounds lately. So basically this 19th century framework breaks down economic movements into three distinct phases, and it's actually pretty useful for thinking about asset allocation right now.
The way it works is straightforward enough: you've got your panic years (think 1927, 2019 - when markets get absolutely wrecked and sentiment is pure fear), your boom years (when everything's pumped up and prices peak), and your difficult years (when things are struggling but actually offer buying opportunities if you're patient).
What's wild is how George Tritch's model maps to where we are in 2026. According to this framework, we're sitting right in the boom phase now - basically the inflection point where you should be thinking about taking profits on positions you accumulated back in 2023 during that difficult phase. It's that classic buy low, sell high scenario playing out on a macro scale.
The George Tritch cycle also intersects with longer-term patterns like the Kondratieff wave theory. 2026 is supposedly where the fifth wave (internet era) transitions into the sixth wave (AI, new energy, computing infrastructure). So the implication is clear: if you're looking to reallocate capital, you probably want to rotate away from legacy sectors and into where the actual growth is happening - AI, renewable energy, data centers, that kind of thing.
It's not a perfect prediction tool obviously, but the George Tritch model does give you a decent framework for thinking about where we might be in the cycle and what makes sense portfolio-wise. Whether you believe in these long-wave theories or not, the underlying logic about boom and bust cycles is pretty hard to argue with.