2026 Hog Cycle "The Toughest Year" Breeding Companies Employ Multiple Strategies to "Overwinter"

People’s Finance and News, April 7—On April 3, the price of domestic live hog futures’ main contract fell to 9,370 yuan per ton, hitting a new low since the time it was listed. Meanwhile, in the spot market, the average ex-farm price for slaughter-ready hogs dropped to below 10 yuan per kilogram, reaching the lowest level in more than ten years. In the view of industry insiders, 2026 will be “the most difficult year” among the recent few hog market cycles. Against this backdrop, since 2026, the country has carried out two rounds of central government reserve purchases to stabilize hog prices. Securities Times reporter, through interviews from multiple angles, learned that current hog prices have already fallen below the industry’s average cost line, and producers are generally stuck in a loss-making predicament. Different from previous rounds, during this decline in hog prices, the pace of industry capacity reduction has been relatively slow, and market clearing still requires time. Most analysts believe that before capacity is substantially reduced, hog prices in the short term will most likely remain in a low-range, choppy pattern. Faced with the trough of the cycle, current breeding companies are “getting through the winter” by cutting costs and improving efficiency, optimizing their financial structure, and expanding overseas markets, thereby enhancing their ability to withstand risks.