Gold prices are attempting to find a bottom after experiencing a period of intense volatility.

Gold prices are trying to find a bottom after a period of intense volatility. As of Monday afternoon Singapore time, gold prices have narrowed their earlier losses and are trading near $4,630 per ounce. This move came after Axios reported that the United States, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, a development that could ease near-term geopolitical risks. Still, Donald Trump’s remarks remain mixed: while he referenced the final deadline related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he also issued new threats against Iran, leaving investors weighing hopes that the situation could de-escalate against the possibility of further disruptions.

The overall macro backdrop is not favorable for gold. Since the conflict broke out in late February, gold prices have fallen by about 12% as rising energy costs have pushed up inflation expectations. At the same time, strong U.S. labor market data—including March nonfarm payrolls rising to the highest level since the end of 2024—has further reinforced the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation risks rather than cutting rates in the near term. This combination could weaken gold’s traditional appeal, especially when rising interest rates often put pressure on non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, some investors appear to be unwinding positions to offset losses in other areas.

Positioning across markets looks relatively cautious. A comment from a former JPMorgan trader suggests that investors are “taking the chips off the table” to protect their portfolios during periods of high volatility. While technical signals indicate that the recent selloff may be stabilizing, given that U.S. inflation data are set to be released this week and oil prices continue to climb, the outlook remains uncertain. The next move in gold may depend on whether ceasefire talks can translate into tangible progress, or whether inflation pressure and policy expectations continue to drive investors’ thinking.

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