U.S. intelligence assessment: It is unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will be "opened" in the short term

Wang Yijun

U.S. intelligence assessments in recent days believe that Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as an important “bargaining chip” for countering the United States and is unlikely, in the short term, to ease its control over this vital energy shipping route.

The analysis holds that the United States is currently mired in multiple predicaments: on the one hand, with its natural geographic advantages, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, making it difficult for the U.S. to “open” the route with force; on the other hand, Iran will continue to use the strait as a bargaining chip, leaving the U.S. with a bleak outlook for negotiations.

Reuters reported on the 3rd, citing three people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named, that Iran has “gotten a taste of sweetness” from controlling the Strait of Hormuz and therefore will not give up this tactic anytime soon. The three people declined to disclose which U.S. intelligence agency the above assessment was based on.

Reuters analysis suggests that the intelligence above means Iran may continue to influence global energy markets by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, in order to pressure the U.S. side to end this war as quickly as possible. For now, the spillover effects of the fighting have already spread into multiple aspects of the U.S. domestic economy, people’s livelihoods, politics, and more, further worsening President Trump’s political liabilities.

The report said Iran may further enhance its influence in the Middle East by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, causing the U.S. side’s “plan to clear Iranian military forces” to fall through.

As for the Strait of Hormuz, a series of recent remarks by Trump appear to contradict one another, highlighting the U.S. side’s passive position. According to reports, at times Trump claims that stopping Iran from controlling the Strait of Hormuz is a prerequisite for a ceasefire; at other times he says that “given time, U.S. forces will ‘open’ the strait”; and at times he urges those countries that need to obtain oil via shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to “take responsibility for maintaining this route themselves,” encouraging them to go directly to the Strait of Hormuz to “seize oil,” or to “buy oil from the United States.”

Notably, on the 2nd, the U.K., a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally of the United States, held a meeting with dozens of countries including France, Germany, and Italy to jointly explore ways to restore normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. was not invited to attend. On the 1st, Iran’s Supreme Leader’s Office excerpted and posted on social media the contents of the first speech by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, reiterating that Iran will continue to use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a countermeasure.

The Strait of Hormuz is arc-shaped, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. At its narrowest point, it is only about 33 kilometers wide. At the narrowest section of the strait, each shipping lane is roughly 3 kilometers wide, with a buffer zone of the same width in between. In such narrow waters, whether it is civilian vessels or warships, they are prone to becoming targets for strikes.

Ali Vaez, head of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group think tank in Belgium, said that by leveraging the Strait of Hormuz’s distinctive geographic conditions, Iran only needs to dispatch a small number of drones to “prevent ships from transiting.”

Some military experts have analyzed that even if the U.S. military controls Iran’s southern coastline and multiple nearby islands, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could still launch drones or missiles from deep within Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. military’s response time would be limited, making it difficult to effectively retaliate.

Bill Burns, the former director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, predicted in a podcast program on the 2nd that during any future ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the U.S., Iran will “tighten its grip” on the Strait of Hormuz as this “bargaining chip,” increasing pressure on the U.S. side in order to end the war as quickly as possible and seek “long-term deterrence capabilities and security assurances” for Iran. (End) (Xinhua News Agency special dispatch)

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Editor: Ling Chen