4.6 Review and Tomorrow's Strategy Plan: Market Sentiment is Weak, What to Expect Tomorrow?

Being fully out of the market is not something you can do for a small amount. The truly worthwhile opportunities to act on must have at least an 80%+ chance of success in your heart, and the remaining 20% are uncontrollable factors like sudden bad news. — A brief moment of flowing light [Taoguba]

7 Questions Before Trading: Before every trade, you must meet all requirements—then you can act!

① What stage is the current market sentiment cycle in? Is it suitable to open a position?
② Is this theme the strongest main line in the market?
③ Is this stock the leader within its sector / a high-recognition, popular “people’s favorite” stock?
④ Does this entry point match my trading model?
⑤ Is this trade’s risk-reward ratio worth it?
⑥ What is the maximum loss I can bear, and where is my stop-loss level?
⑦ If I buy but it doesn’t meet expectations, do I have a response plan?
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Let’s check: A50 is up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.42%. This shows that the overseas market is still in a wait-and-see mode, and the overall background is still weak.

On Friday, A-share capital was already panicked. So even if there is a repair tomorrow, it can’t be overly optimistic—after all, at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on 4/8 there’s still uncertainty on the news front from that side. As of now, it’s hard for the conflict to just calm down immediately.

At the index level:

Continuing divergence, and Friday was a one-way selloff with zero resistance. It kept shrinking volume, and it has already “hit double ice”—here, I don’t rule out a third “ice” day, since it’s not far off.

Up 700 stocks, down 4,400; 36 stocks hit limit-up, and 24 hit limit-down. This data should be the worst recently!

Even if tomorrow sees a repair in expectations, we shouldn’t look at it with optimism. Tomorrow’s script is either weak consolidation with a repair during the day, or continued divergence. But neither side will have much strength, because the downside has already happened on Friday.

On strategy: tomorrow during the session or at the close, you can look for oversold popular core names.

At the sector level:

Aerospace: too weak. With no major catalysts in the news ahead, it’s likely just a rebound, then it’s gone. For now, I’m not looking at rotation.

Fiber-optics: China Tower? (Longfei) plus Hangelectrics? Farsync Sheng 3 are the big core plays. The core big boss is still Longfei; if Farsync Sheng is in a group, Hangelectrics is more like a rotation “little brother.” Tomorrow Farsync Sheng only has one path: a high-open with acceleration. Remember, this stock is “named” already. Here, you shouldn’t expect a second consecutive limit-up. If it opens not too high tomorrow, it may be possible to participate; if it opens too high, then forget it.

CPO: rotation. Since Friday couldn’t lift the sector, for now I’m not looking at it.

Electric power: here, on Friday the entire 3-board streak broke. Xinxin Tianshan managed to “cling to” fiber optics. The sector index moved like an A-shape. For now, I won’t look—only the oversold old core plays.

Lithium batteries: weak. Rotation has already happened. For now, I’m not looking.

Computing power: rotation, and it’s weak rotation—good for biding time with core names.

Biopharma: if Tianyao tomorrow succeeds with a 7-board, then you can consider low-position entries, or a mid-to-low reversal with a comeback, or convertibles.

At the mindset level:

In this stage, overall it’s extremely weak. For most “babies,” it’s still better to stay in cash and not hold positions.

After all, once you play it, most of the time you lose more than you win, and it will also affect your mindset.

Even waiting to set up is hard, because it’s downward.

Chasing higher is even harder: if you get it wrong, you might lose for two days.

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In this market, there’s probably a turning point next week. Wait patiently. If there isn’t, then you can only keep waiting. If you need to make a move, your position size must be small!