Hexun Investment Advisor Yu Xingdong: Post-holiday expectations, stay steady and hold on tight

On April 3, Hexun Investment Advisory Yu Xingdong said that hard days are basically coming to an end. After the Qingming Festival, our A-shares may take a slight pullback, and then it could usher in a truly strong uptrend. Perhaps many people don’t believe it, but that’s okay—first light up a little red heart and follow along, and we’ll verify it together. Next, I’ll explain this logic to everyone so you can also use it to judge whether I’m right or not.

Today’s trading action shows that only a little over 700 stocks are rising, with volume shrinking to nearly 190 billion yuan. This is a typical pattern of low-volume broad-based decline. At this point, a low-volume broad-based selloff is actually a positive signal. It shows that the people who are running for the exits and dumping are retail investors’ behavior, not institutional activity. Because if institutional main funds really wanted to leave, the volume would definitely expand and the selloff would be especially swift. Friends who have been trading stocks for more than a year must have experienced the fear of big-volume rapid liquidation and a straight plunge, but today the decline is mild and slow. This indicates that retail investors are selling, while institutions haven’t really moved. Then why is it still falling? Mainly because there isn’t much buying interest below. After the institutions’ funds make a move a bit after the holiday, the index can rebound immediately.

Institutions aren’t taking action because there are three days of Qingming Festival mini-holiday. Everyone knows that recently the most important factor affecting the stock market is the situation in the Middle East. During these three days of holiday, nobody knows what might happen. So funds on the sidelines simply stay out of the market. Even today’s decline is also because people holding chips are worried that something unexpected could happen during these three days, so they chose to reduce positions.

From a technical perspective, in the past few days the broader market has already tested and pulled back around the 3,800 support, and then a rebound appeared. It then filled the gap at 3,955. Now it has returned to the 3,880 area. You can compare it with the double-bottom structure from November to December last year—doesn’t it look especially similar? So technically, if there’s another bit of bad news causing a pullback near 3,800, the chart structure can form another double-bottom pattern. After that, it can move into a strong upswing like the one at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. This support comes from the technical side.

As for fundamentals, there’s even less to worry about. We’ve already entered the annual report and quarterly report season. Combined with the possibility of policy releases, it’s difficult for fundamentals to produce any substantial negative impact. The biggest variable in front of us right now is the Middle East situation. But the Middle East situation has been ongoing for more than a month already, and people are starting to experience visual fatigue. With these factors compounded together, the conclusion is very clear: our A-shares are entering a window period where it’s easier to rise than to fall. So I hope friends can hold on a bit longer and keep waiting—when the returns that are coming arrive, they will be there.

(责任编辑：赵艳萍 HF094)

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