Galaxy Futures: Geopolitical disturbances weaken, focus on substantive changes in the fundamentals of dual焦

The core contradiction in the current coking coal market is that the upward momentum driven by the earlier logic of “coal substituting for oil and gas” has clearly weakened, and price gains lack sustained support. This replacement logic has a long transmission chain and has limited actual impact on the supply and demand of coking coal; it can only boost market sentiment in the short term and is difficult to form trend-like support. Judging from the actual performance on the March trading screen, coking coal’s volatility is strongly correlated with oil and gas prices; however, the recent high-range consolidation in crude oil and natural gas has not continued in a strong manner, which has weakened the replacement value of coking coal. As a result, market enthusiasm for trading the replacement logic has cooled further, and there is still insufficient upward momentum. Going forward, the key focus should be on the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the price trend of oil and gas, the supply-and-demand fundamentals of the coking coal–coke–steel industrial chain, and the valuation-repair pace after market sentiment cools. In the short term, no new upward driver for coking coal has been seen. The price action will likely return to fundamentals and the macro environment rather than relying purely on sentiment and capital flows. Prices will most likely be dominated by broad-range fluctuations—characterized by relatively large volatility but without a clearly discernible trend. (Galaxy Futures)