Barclays estimates that the Iran conflict will cause a disruption of 14.5 million barrels per day in oil supply.

Investing.com – Based on Barclays’ data, as of March 30, the four-week average of oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 400k barrels per day, down 1.72 million barrels per day year over year. Last year, the strait carried about 25% of global seaborne oil trade, but as the Iran conflict continues, flows have dropped to extremely low levels.

Right now, about 175 million barrels of oil and oil products are stuck on ships in the Middle East Gulf, down 10 million barrels per day month over month. On February 22, before the escalation of the conflict, exports through the strait were 18.7 million barrels per day, up 120,000 barrels per day year over year.

As of March 30, the four-week average of oil exports through alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—covering Yanbu and Fujairah—totaled 6 million barrels per day, up 2.7 million barrels per day year over year. By contrast, exports on February 22 were 3.3 million barrels per day. The firm calculated that net supply disruption was about 14.5 million barrels per day.

The supply shortfall has pushed the front-month-to-next-three-month spread on the WTI futures curve to a level that is slightly above 100% as of the three-day moving average at the weekend. This figure exceeds the peak of about 45% reached immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Multiple U.S. allies are pushing for a ceasefire, but Barclays notes that rhetoric remains tough on all sides. Over the weekend, the forward-implied average 2026 Brent crude oil price was $88 per barrel, while Barclays’ base-case scenario was $85 per barrel—an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in early April. The firm said that if normalization is delayed until the end of May, market prices could be repriced to $110.

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