Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-06T19:08:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 4th (UTC+8): The United States released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs added, well above expectations. Additionally, the February data was revised from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. This report, amid the reduced probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, provided short-term support for the dollar. The Iran war enters its sixth week, and the quick resolution scenario involving Trump is beginning to collapse. The market's more critical test is also approaching: the first CPI report since the outbreak of war is about to be released, and inflation may surge. Some warn that "now is not the time to trade." Here are the key market focus points for the upcoming week (all times Beijing time): - Monday 22:00: US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday 23:00: US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations - Wednesday 00:35: FOMC voting member for 2027, Chicago Fed President

MeNews

2026-04-06 19:08:48

ME News update, April 4 (UTC+8). On Friday, the U.S. released the nonfarm payrolls report, showing that the country added 178k jobs, far exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decline of 92k to a decline of 133k, and the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar amid a backdrop in which the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026 has decreased. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick and decisive” scenario associated with Trump is starting to fall apart. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released, and inflation could run out of control. Some have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, remarks by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (y/y), the U.S. February personal spending (m/m), the final Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final Q4 real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) quarterly rate, the final Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index (m/m); Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI (y/y) / core CPI (y/y), and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (m/m) / core CPI (m/m). Friday 22:00, initial estimates of the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and the U.S. February factory orders (m/m) (source: PANews)

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