Guotai Junan Futures: The European short-term contract is moving realistically, and the realistic load is under pressure, weakening the near-term price increase expectations.

In recent months, market action aligns with reality; reality pricing loads and bears pressure, weakening near-term price increase expectations. As 2604 is gradually reduced ahead of settlement, 2605 becomes the preferred contract for short-position rollovers. In 2606, 2607, and 2608, under the typical peak-season expectations, they also reflect a war-premium overlay; relative to downside protection, they become the preferred contracts for long-position rollovers. In the second week of April, the FE4 route faces substantial cargo-pulling pressure at Shanghai port. At present, the second-week FE4 ONE vessel has not yet been fully loaded, which drags on the pricing of the waterborne freight for the second half of the month. For 04, at roughly flat to par versus week15, the spot freight rate is around 1700~1800 points; pay attention to the next two days’ Maersk week16 sailing guidance and the basic positioning it provides for the settlement price of 2604. 2605 will mainly follow fluctuations on the reality side, narrowing the premium versus 2604 gradually. 2606 and the far months will follow wide-ranging geopolitical fluctuations; in the short term, geopolitics is unlikely to cool down, and one-way volatility remains high. You may appropriately consider opportunities when seasonal spreads compress and then widen again. (Guotai Junan Futures)