Goldman Sachs issues warning on the Strait of Hormuz: multiple countries may face oil shortages

As the United States and Israel’s joint military actions against Iran continue, the key shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, has effectively fallen into a state of blockade, and it won’t be long before many countries face the real possibility of running out of oil.

Goldman Sachs strategist Dan Struyven wrote in a recent report: “The last batch of tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz before the war is currently arriving at its destination, and market concerns about a potential oil shortage are steadily intensifying.”

Struyven added: “Our trilateral analysis shows that in Asia, supplies of petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are already at extremely low levels, and in April, multiple Asian countries will face shortages across different fuel categories. The limited remaining oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative import routes, export control measures, and domestic oil reserves in individual countries may be able to ease the impact of the Strait’s blockade on gasoline and diesel supplies, but the risk of shortages of fuel oil and naphtha remains extremely high—especially in Asia.”

With the “Operation Epic Fury” continuing to be carried out, international oil prices have entered a period of intense volatility.

Over the past two weeks, oil prices have swung dramatically and, recently, surged to the highest level since the launch of military action at the end of February.

In late March, oil prices fell slightly below $100 as markets briefly anticipated easing of the situation; but after President Trump’s April 1 prime-time address, oil prices immediately skyrocketed. In his speech, the president promised that over the next two to three weeks, Iran would be “hit with extremely severe blows,” which in effect means the conflict will not end in the short term.

Driven by this, on April 2, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 11.4% to $111.54 per barrel; Brent crude rose to $109.03 per barrel.

Over the weekend last week, the president again escalated his wartime rhetoric, which may further push up oil prices and also leave the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the balance.

Trump wrote on the social platform “Truth Social,” saying: “Open the strait immediately, or you will all go to hell.” He warned that if Tehran fails to restore freedom of navigation in the strait before Monday’s deadline, it will face serious consequences.

On that platform, he also said: “Tuesday will be the day for Iran’s power-plant strikes and bridge strikes; both operations will be carried out together.”

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway located between Oman and Iran, and it is the world’s most important oil shipping chokepoint. Daily oil transportation volume reaches 20 million barrels, accounting for about 20% of global seaborne oil supply.

Before the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out, about 138 ships on average passed through the strait each day; after the launch of military action, that figure crashed by more than 90%, with the number of ships passing per day often dropping to single digits.

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Editor-in-charge: Guo Mingyu