Top institutions' outlook: External conflicts have not shaken the long-term foundation of a slow bull market in A-shares. The market is waiting for a bottoming opportunity, and early signs of a left-side positioning opportunity have appeared.

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Last Wednesday, the three major indices: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.96%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.44%. How will things develop next? See what institutions have to say.

CITIC Construction Investment Strategy Weekly Thoughts: The Market Waits for a Bargain-Buying Moment

The situation in Iran continues to escalate and remains complex and volatile. The market has been repeatedly swinging around negotiation signals. Meanwhile, U.S. and Israeli military actions have shifted from airstrikes to preparing for ground operations. The next 2–3 weeks are still a high-risk period in which the situation may rapidly deteriorate. The market is waiting for the right time to buy the dip, and the outlook from funds in the short term is marked by a strong wait-and-see stance. On the other hand, domestic fundamentals are also worth revisiting. A series of data jointly supports the trend toward an improving economy. As March economic data is about to be released and earnings season approaches, market attention will gradually shift to substantive verification of the quality of economic recovery and improvements in corporate profitability. Along three lines of clues, lay out patiently: the energy security and inflation main theme, certainty-driven growth assets, policy beneficiaries and the seasonal upswing outlook. Industry priorities include: oil and gas production, coal, coal chemical industry, power equipment, utilities, chemicals, the AI industry chain, innovative drugs, the infrastructure investment industry chain, and service consumption, etc.

Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy Weekly Review & Outlook: Under the Clash Between Iran and the U.S., the Macro Scenario Is About to Converge

After the appearance of an intermediate-term trough, the market will return to the path of a “two-stage rising market.” The “consolidation-and-rest period between the two stages of a rising market” will still last for a while. The core is to wait for the accumulation of positive fundamental signals, with earnings and time absorbing valuations. Under an industrial trend of leapfrog progress, market structural consensus is regrouping. With the accumulation of “money-making effects” driving a positive loop of incremental capital, 2026–2027 still offers a “second-stage rising market” (possibly starting in 26Q4). This will be a period where fundamentals and liquidity resonate, opening the market’s upside space in an all-round way.

Orient Securities: Geopolitical Disturbance Intensifies—Focus on the Safety Main Line

This week, the situation in the Middle East has warmed up, international oil prices have risen again, and U.S. Treasury yields have broadly flattened. At present, there are two trading directions in the market: first, pricing an increase in the intensity of near-term war; second, pricing a higher medium-term crude oil price center with liquidity remaining relatively tight. But overall, the global environment—liquidity is tight, risk appetite is moving down, and risk assessment is moving up—has not changed. In the domestic equity market, there’s no need to be overly optimistic, and there’s no need to worry too much. Going forward, you should focus more on the safety main line and execute steadily.

China Galaxy Securities: The Key to the “Sword” and the “Shield” Still Lies in Crude Oil

From the external environment, military conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and the prospects for a ceasefire and negotiations remain unclear. Trump has set an April 6 deadline, and the intensity and scope of Iran’s retaliatory actions are expanding.

With conflict uncertainty still high and the direction of the moves still unclear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment, and A-share markets may show characteristics of oscillation and rotation. Changes in the crude oil price trend will still be a key variable affecting the market’s structure in the near term. An upward move in oil prices lifts global inflation expectations. Delayed rate-cut expectations lead to a marginal tightening of global liquidity. This will strengthen the trading logic for the energy-commodity substitution sector and the “protective” role of defensive sectors. At the same time, it may weigh down parts of offensive sectors such as technology growth. If, later on, expectations for easing conflict lead oil prices to oscillate and then fall, and if expectations for monetary easing rise again, it would be favorable for the growth-stock rally to recover. From the internal environment, the core logic—policy support, capital entering the market, and the re-pricing of Chinese assets—has not changed. External conflict has not shaken the foundation of A-shares’ long-term “slow bull” trend. Meanwhile, in April, listed companies’ earnings enter a concentrated disclosure period, and the storyline of the market gradually shifts toward fundamental verification. Sectors with high earnings certainty and sustained improvement in business conditions will become the primary direction for funds to focus on.

Allocation opportunities: First, pay attention to energy and substitution-driven demand strengthening under the Iran-U.S. conflict trajectory; focus on coal, coal chemical, new energy, shipping and ports, oil and gas, etc.; also watch for valuation-repair opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector. Second, defensive assets may hold a phase of relative advantage; focus on financials (banks), utilities, transportation, and others. Third, focus on the logic of technology innovation, self-reliance and controllability, and certainty in industrial trends; focus on power equipment, energy storage, storage, semiconductors, computing power, and communication equipment, etc. For the consumer sector, focus on areas such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, food and beverage, and home appliances. Over the medium to long term, we remain bullish on the dual main lines of the technology sector driven by industrial catalysts and the periodic price-increase opportunities in cyclical sectors.

Everbright Securities: Volatility Doesn’t Erase Resilience—Waiting for Catalyst Signals

Three potential turning points for the market. While domestic markets inevitably have to bear the impact of oil-price fluctuations and the downward drift in short-term risk appetite, on the one hand, China’s domestic energy self-sufficiency rate is relatively high, giving it some resistance to continued increases in external energy prices. On the other hand, judging from several rounds of overseas volatility in the past, China’s exports typically benefit when external uncertainty rises—possibly due to the stability of China’s domestic supply chain. Therefore, in the medium term, we believe Chinese assets have inherent stability and are expected to attract continued inflows of capital. Looking ahead to April, the market’s potential turning points may come from the following three directions: 1）Listed companies’ earnings exceed expectations. In April, listed companies’ 2025 full-year reports and 2026 Q1 reports will be released successively. Based on the current situation, overall listed-company performance is likely to improve slightly; structurally, there are prominent highlights in the science-and-technology innovation and cyclical categories. Upside surprises in fundamentals are expected to support the market’s upward move. 2）Medium- to long-term capital entering the market. Current policy continues to support medium- and long-term capital entering the market. The earlier market pullbacks may again trigger medium- and long-term capital inflows, supporting a market bottoming and recovery. 3）External risk factors ease. The easing of prior risk factors is one of the most direct potential catalysts for upward action by the market, but its predictability is relatively poor.

Structurally, we recommend focusing on previously oversold directions, areas that benefit from higher commodity prices, and industries whose earnings may exceed expectations. Since the Iran-U.S. conflict erupted, industry performance has diverged significantly. The two categories with the most obvious adjustments are: one is the previously high-position growth-related direction; the other is resource-based sectors in which product prices are significantly affected.

If the market reverses in the future, these two categories are likely to perform even better. At the same time, we recommend focusing on industries that may benefit from higher commodity prices, including resource-based sectors, essential consumption, hard-tech, and directions related to government investment.

In addition, industries with high growth rates in annual reports and Q1 reports are worth focusing on, likely mainly concentrated in resource-based and technology-related industries.

Zhejiang Securities: Geopolitics Remains Unclear, Oil Prices Still Stir—Stay Steady and Wait for the Counterattack Timing

Looking further ahead, given the complexity of Middle East geopolitical turmoil and the conflict’s substantive “spiral escalation,” global capital markets are expected to remain under pressure. With A-shares unable to “keep to themselves,” they may continue to display a choppy consolidation pattern. Among them, because the Shanghai Composite Index fell faster in the earlier period, it formed a “high-volume trading area” above the 4,000-point mark. This leads the 4,000 to 4,040 range to become the upper end of the volatility band. Meanwhile, based on recent trading you can clearly see that since last April, the 0.382 percentile of the “Bull Market’s Wave 3” to the 3,800-point integer level has already become a strong support at the lower end of the current volatility range. We expect that in the near term, the Shanghai Composite Index will operate in the manner of “range-bound oscillation, a second attempt to find the bottom; support at the lower end, pressure at the upper end.” The “right leg” of a second bottoming may gradually take shape in the middle to late part of April, and it is expected to form a rebound at the weekly chart level. Looking at the longer cycle, the continuation of the “systemic slow bull” pattern depends on whether it can hold the high point of “Bull 1” in 2024. Also, after that, when it challenges the 4,000-point threshold, it needs to be able to return “forcefully” to the original volatility range.

For allocation, based on the judgment of “geopolitical escalation drives global volatility, and A-shares oscillate to find the second bottom,” we recommend: in the short term, remain cautious and treat the broader market as range-bound—when the stock index approaches the “upper end” of the new volatility range, give up greed and appropriately “sell high” to take some profits; when the stock index moves to the “lower end” of the new volatility range, overcome fear and “buy the dips” in moderation. If after mid-April the Middle East situation becomes clearer and the structural bottom of A-shares’ midline takes shape, then you can actively increase allocation and expand upside elasticity.

China Merchants Securities: Outlook on Consumption Tax Reform—How to Understand the Increase in the Collection Ratio of State-Owned Capital Returns?

In the week’s domestic policy guidance, we suggest focusing on content related to fiscal and tax system reform. First is the consumption tax. We have reviewed the potential directions for consumption tax reform. From an investment opportunity perspective, we suggest focusing on areas such as tax-free offerings and dual-carbon-related themes. Second is the implementation of an increase in the proportion for collecting returns from state-owned capital. We believe that against the backdrop of an increase in the collection ratios across various groups’ returns, they may have a demand to raise the dividend payout ratios of their listed companies or non-listed entities under them. We suggest that investors continue to watch the related trading opportunities involving central SOEs with high dividends.

Domestic policy special topic 1: Outlook on consumption tax reform. Recently, market discussion about consumption tax reform has increased.

From our research, compared with the budget reports in recent years regarding all the arrangements for fiscal and tax system reform, this year’s demand for consumption tax reform is indeed high. It may mainly be approached from three aspects: expanding the scope, adjusting tax rates, and shifting the collection stage. Combined with the views of various experts, we have compiled potential consumer categories that may be affected under these three reform pathways. In terms of the impact on subsequent market performance, we believe that under the background of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing consistency in macro policy orientation and expectations management, progress in consumption tax reform will still consider, to the maximum extent, the impact on market expectations, avoiding “synthesized fallacies.”

Therefore, on the implementation schedule, it may be rolled out in multiple steps: first, release categories whose impacts are relatively controllable and have larger negative externalities. For example, when expanding the scope of taxation, prioritize expanding coverage to luxury leather goods, clothing, and similar items, which would indirectly benefit tax-free sales. For example, when adjusting tax rates, prioritize expanding tax rates on portions of consumer goods that are harmful to the environment, which would indirectly benefit dual-carbon-related concepts such as new energy power generation and environmental protection. As for measures such as a “sugar tax,” they may still be advanced together with expectations management at an appropriate time.

Domestic policy special topic 2: Increase in the collection ratio of returns from state-owned capital. Recently, the Ministry of Finance disclosed the 2026 central government budget, including for the first time in “Explanations on the 2026 Central Government Budget for Operations of State-Owned Capital” the collection ratio of after-tax profits of central government wholly owned enterprises (non-financial). Compared with previously disclosed publicly available data, the related figures have undergone major changes, with the proportion of profit remitted to the fiscal authorities clearly increasing. This is the first adjustment since 2014. In terms of specific changes, the remittance proportions have increased by 10%–15% across different tiers. We believe that going forward, investors should focus on the trading opportunities related to central SOEs with high dividends. Against the backdrop of an increase in collection ratios of returns across these groups, they may have a demand to raise the dividend payout ratios of their listed companies or non-listed entities. We compiled the dividend situations of central SOE groups under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the corresponding listed central SOEs. When comparing these with the proportions after the increase in their collection ratios, we found that about 45 listed central SOEs’ 2024 dividend yields were, to some extent, lower than the proportions they should remit under the higher collection ratio scenario. By industry, these central SOEs mainly belong to groups in sectors such as power, transportation, and defense/military industries.

Huajin Securities: Is the bottom in the short term?

In the short term, continue to allocate to high-quality technology and some cyclical industries at lower prices. (1) During the bottoming and consolidation period, high-quality technology and cyclical industries may relatively outperform. First, looking back at history: in bottoming and consolidation periods, industries supported by policy, with upward industrial trends, and with faster earnings growth rankings tend to outperform relatively. Second, from the current perspective, in the short term, sectors such as electronics, communications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment may relatively outperform. (2) First-quarter earnings growth for industries such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, electronics, computer, defense and military industries may be relatively high. First, first-quarter earnings growth for steel, computers, media, and defense/military are relatively high according to Wind’s consensus forecasts. Second, for industries such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, TMT, and utilities, the cumulative year-on-year industrial enterprise profit growth in January–February 2026 is relatively high. Third, real estate, coal, and defense/military industries may benefit from a low base for first-quarter earnings growth this year. Fourth, upstream industries such as oil refining and chemicals and non-ferrous metals and chemicals may see improved business conditions in Q1; midstream industries such as electronics and communications may see some improvement in business conditions in Q1 as well. (3) In the short term, continue to allocate at lower prices: first, industries supported by policy and upward industrial trends, including communications (AI hardware), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), power & utilities (AI power, energy storage), innovative drugs, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, defense/military (commercial aerospace), etc.; second, low-valuation dividend sectors such as coal, power, and banks.

Open-source Strategy: When the “second-order derivative” of conflict appears—Left-side layout opportunities are already emerging!

Faced with a highly uncertain geopolitical situation and the current market environment, “volatility” and “fragility” are the difficulties investors face. We propose using volatility as the core analytical framework, and suggest verifying the timing to enter by “volatility amplitude converging,” rather than “event clearance.” Pay special attention to OVX and VIX; together they represent the energy the market is facing

For the next steps, we believe: the conflict hasn’t ended, but the worst pricing phase may already be behind us. On the left side, you can start trying to build an offensive layout, but you should not be overly aggressive. Technology growth is still the direction most worth focusing on.

Allocation approach:

（1）Growth is still the strongest main line in this cycle, but the investment thinking needs to change: ΔG + profit redistribution. Key focus on: Power capital (power equipment, energy metals), Computing power capital (storage, semiconductors, robotics, liquid cooling), Platform applications (Hong Kong stock internet), innovative drugs;

（2）We emphasize that high-dividend yield in 2026 is better than in 2025. We focus on high-dividend opportunities that factor in ΔG: coal, insurance, media, petrochemicals, and transportation;

（3）The “option” varieties after potential bottoming in real estate prices: selective consumption and services consumption recovery driven by the stabilization of the balance sheet (high-end commercial properties, outdoor sports, travel, hotels, catering, etc.).

Guoxin Securities: Outlook for the Second Quarter of the Stock Market—Don’t Fear the Floating Clouds Blocking Your View

① The Year’s start A-share spring rally continues, and with March geopolitical disruptions, it moves into consolidation; sector rotation speeds up, and technology growth, resource commodities, and value blue chips perform in sequence. ② The pullback in Wave 4 does not change the bullish atmosphere for the whole year. With external conditions easing and domestic demand policies gaining momentum, after the A-shares’ short-term consolidation, it is expected to clear up like after rain. ③ The market structure is expected to broaden. The AI technology rally will shift from hardware to applications. Pay attention to strategic resource commodities with safety considerations, as well as low-valuation old blue-chip assets such as liquor and real estate.

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