Debon Securities: Technology resilience remains

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Source: De邦 Securities

April 3, 2026, Friday. The A-share market performed poorly, with trading value narrowing to 1.67 trillion yuan; the government bond futures market as a whole showed a narrow-range adjustment, with ultra-long-term government bond futures slightly strengthening toward the end of trading; commodity indices continued rising, and the energy and chemical sector remained strong.

1. Market performance analysis

1）Stock market: The A-share market performed poorly, with trading value narrowing to 1.67 trillion yuan

The A-share market performed poorly, with trading value narrowing to 1.67 trillion yuan. Today, the overall A-share market faced relatively more pressure, and all three major indices saw declines of varying degrees. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3880.10 points, down 1.00%. Against the backdrop of continually oscillating geopolitical developments in the Middle East, market sentiment turned relatively colder; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13352.90 points, down 0.99%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3149.60 points, down 0.73%; and the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.21 points, down 0.47%. Judging by overall market turnover, today’s total trading value in A-shares was about 1.67 trillion yuan, down 10.2% versus the prior trading day, and market wait-and-see sentiment has warmed up somewhat. In terms of individual stock performance, there were fewer stocks up than down, with overall performance weak. The number of stocks rising was 716, while stocks falling were 4738.

Today’s market did not follow yesterday’s pricing logic of “resources defense favored.” Instead, it shifted to the structure of “compute power hardware repair, independent controllability with active participation, and a pullback in new energy.” At the sector level, communication, comprehensive finance, and electronics held up relatively better and rose by 2.60%, 0.44%, and 0.08%, respectively. By contrast, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, power equipment and new energy, textiles and apparel, comprehensive and media—among other directions—led the declines, falling by 2.76%, 2.66%, 2.65%, 2.48%, and 2.41%, respectively.

On the concept front, technology sub-sectors such as CPO, optical circuit switches (OCS), optical communications, lithography machines, and others strengthened against the trend, rising by 5.05%, 4.89%, 3.42%, and 1.98%, respectively, while directions such as photovoltaic glass, hydropower, high-sending and high-transfer (allotment) opportunities, artificial meat, and photovoltaic rooftops faced clear pressure. On the one hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently deployed a special initiative to support small and medium-sized enterprises with inclusive compute power. It proposed that by the end of 2028, a nationwide inclusive compute power service system would be basically built, covering a wide area with low costs, strong services, a lively ecosystem, and strong talent, and it also clarified the reduction of the thresholds for small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain and use compute power. This directly catalyzes optical communications, compute power infrastructure, and related hardware chains. On the other hand, Trump continues to issue tough statements about increasing the力度 of strikes against Iran. External geopolitical disturbances and high oil-price pressure have not disappeared. But judging from today’s trading picture, A-shares have not continued the old, simple logic of “oil prices rising—resources benefiting.” Instead, it has shifted more toward technology hardware directions supported by policy, industry trends, and expectations for earnings. Overall, today’s market’s core feature has switched from yesterday’s “resources defense favored under geopolitical shock” to “external uncertainty remains high, but internal funds are starting to refocus on technology sub-sectors with stronger policy and prosperity certainty.” This also shows that while risk appetite has not been fully restored, it is no longer shrinking one-directionally.

With the Middle East situation heating up again and external risk appetite falling, the overall A-share market remains weak. The market as a whole is relatively weak, but at the index level it is not universally sliding lower: the growth-style stocks in ChiNext rose 0.93%, the STAR 200 rose 0.79%, and the STAR and ChiNext 50 slightly inched up 0.02%. This indicates that funds have not simply rotated back into dividend-defense. Instead, they have more likely reallocated within higher-volatility growth, doing “sell the weak and keep the strong.” On the external front, on April 3, Trump again threatened to expand attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, and market worries that the Middle East conflict may drag on, energy transportation could be disrupted, and oil prices may remain high continue to intensify. Overall, what is more worth paying attention to in today’s A-shares is not “how much the market is down,” but rather that with external uncertainty still present and overall market breadth clearly weak, some STAR and growth styles have not weakened in sync. This implies that fund behavior has moved from earlier risk aversion toward a more structural contraction. On one hand, the broader market is still paying a risk premium for high oil prices and geopolitical risks. On the other hand, technology chains with industry-trend support and relatively more certainty are starting to regain investors’ favor and see inflows again. In the short term, if the Middle East situation and oil-price shocks continue to intensify and repeat, A-shares are likely to maintain the operating pattern of “indices slightly weak, with structural differentiation.”

2）Bond market: The government bond futures market is generally stable, with ultra-long-term government bond futures slightly stronger toward the end of trading

The government bond futures market remains broadly stable, and the ultra-long-term government bond futures rose slightly toward the end. Today, across the middle and short end of the government bond futures curve, changes were not large overall, while the long end saw some gains. The 30-year government bond futures TL2606 rose 0.21%, closing at 111.46 yuan, with trading volume of 114.27 billion yuan; the 10-year government bond futures T2606 rose 0.05%, closing at 108.27 yuan, with trading volume of 16.7k yuan; the 5-year government bond futures main contract rose 0.01%; the 2-year government bond futures main contract was flat versus the prior trading day, with trading volumes of 79.819 and 16.7k yuan, respectively.

The central bank conducted reverse repo operations with a very small amount for three consecutive days, but liquidity conditions still remained stable and slightly loose. For open market operations, the central bank carried out 7-day reverse repo operations of 16.7k yuan using fixed-rate and quantity bidding, with the operation rate at 1.4%. Because 146.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today, the open market achieved a net cash withdrawal of 145.2 billion yuan. Shibor rates across all maturities fell to some extent. The overnight Shibor was 1.238%, down 3.3 basis points versus the prior trading day; the 7-day Shibor was 1.338%, down 6.6 basis points; the 14-day Shibor was 1.396%, down 2.6 basis points; and the 1-month Shibor was 1.479%, down 0.95 basis points versus the prior trading day, continuing to stay at low levels within the year. Although the central bank conducted reverse repos with a very small amount for three consecutive days, it was more like marginal liquidity recovery after the disturbances around quarter-end, and it does not necessarily mean the monetary environment has tightened noticeably.

Liquidity conditions remain relatively loose, but the bond market did not respond with a clear, strong rally; overall it is still in a high-level consolidation phase. Despite the central bank conducting reverse repos with small amounts for three consecutive days and open market operations continuing to achieve net cash withdrawals, Shibor across maturities kept falling, indicating that the current liquidity environment has not tightened meaningfully and liquidity remains stable and somewhat loose. From the market’s intraday performance, government bond futures overall showed a narrow-range oscillation pattern. This suggests that while the safe-haven sentiment triggered by weaker equities provided some support to the bond market, it was not enough to push interest-rate bonds back into a one-way strong rally. This may mean that the core of bond-market pricing today is still mostly position digestion and trading-side wait-and-see after yields fell earlier, rather than concerns that the monetary environment is tightening. We believe that with funding rates staying at low levels and the central bank’s recent operations reflecting marginal recovery rather than real tightening, the bond market in the short term is likely to continue with consolidation and oscillation, and the direction still needs to wait for new policy or fundamental catalysts.

3）Commodity market: Commodity indices continue to rise, and the energy and chemical sector remains strong

Commodity indices continue to rise, and the energy and chemical sector remains strong. Today, the S. N. Huacommodity index closed at 3065.99 points, up 0.34%. The gains in fuel oil futures outperformed those in crude oil futures, which may reflect that worries about Middle Eastern energy transportation security have further intensified. The leading performers were fuel oil, methanol, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, and styrene, rising by 7.10%, 6.29%, 5.13%, 5.03%, and 4.59%, respectively. The laggards were rapeseed meal, glass, Shanghai silver, live hogs, and polysilicon, falling by -1.99%, -2.01%, -2.78%, -2.90%, and -4.69%, respectively.

Geopolitical risks continue to heat up. If fuel oil is stronger than crude oil, it may reflect that the market has started trading “transport disruptions + tight supply in the near end” rather than oil-price increases alone. Today, fuel oil’s main contract rose more strongly and clearly outperformed crude oil. This may suggest that, against the backdrop of Trump once again releasing statements that he will continue to increase strikes against Iran and that concerns about the Strait of Hormuz passage and Middle Eastern energy transport security are intensifying, pricing by funds has expanded beyond pure crude-oil supply shocks, further spreading to refined oil products and shipping fuel segments. Recently, international oil prices have surged sharply, and the near-month crude oil spread has widened—this in itself indicates that the market is more worried about whether “it can be shipped out smoothly in the near term,” rather than a slow rebalancing of supply and demand in the longer term. Looking ahead, if geopolitical conditions cannot be stabilized for a long time, the strong performance of fuel oil and other products may still repeatedly play out; but if shipping disruptions do not further become materially concrete, then after an overly fast surge in the short term, investors should also be cautious about increased volatility at high levels.

Cost push continues to transmit into the chemical chain. The strength in PTA more reflects “a passive uplift under oil-price shocks,” and its sustainability still depends on whether end demand can keep up. We believe that PTA’s strong performance today—along with crude oil and fuel oil rising together—has a core driver: Middle East developments repeatedly pushing up international oil prices, which then drives cost transmission along the aromatics—PX—PTA chain. Based on the market’s trading focus, what the market is trading right now is not that polyester end demand has suddenly improved, but rather that after upstream energy prices moved higher, the logic of midstream chemical products passively following up is continuing to strengthen. This also implies that in the short term, PTA is still likely to remain relatively strong and be pulled by oil-price volatility; but if, going forward, terminal textile processing, polyester operating rates, and order intake do not improve in sync, then the rationale for its rise will be more cost-driven, and the strength may have limited capacity to smoothly transmit to downstream sectors. In other words, the strength of the chemical chain right now is first about geopolitical and cost-based pricing, and only second about fundamental improvement.

Summary of the key ideas recently

For equities: In the short term, if the Middle East situation and the oil-price shock continue to intensify and repeat, A-shares are likely to maintain the operating pattern of “indices relatively weak, with structural differentiation.” Going forward, it remains necessary to closely monitor how the Middle East situation evolves, the trend of international oil prices, and how external market volatility is re-transmitted into A-share sentiment.

For the bond market: Currently it looks more like consolidation in stages after a strong market, rather than a turn toward a weakening trend. Liquidity that is relatively loose still provides support to the bond market. However, under a backdrop of repeated external disturbances and larger market sentiment volatility, the driving force for interest rates to fall smoothly further remains weak. In the short term, it is more likely to remain mainly consolidation and oscillation, and volatility in the long end may continue to be greater than in the short end.

For commodities: Continued repeated Middle East geopolitical turbulence remains the focus of current market pricing. In the short term, the strong logic in the energy chain has room to keep being played out, but the market’s action is likely to be carried out mainly in a structural way. Sustainability still depends on whether geopolitical events are further upgraded and transmitted into actual supply disruptions.

Risk warning: Changes in international geopolitical conditions; volatility in international bulk commodities prices.

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责任编辑：郭栩彤