Bitcoin is currently rangebound between $65,000 and $71,000, a compression zone that has held for several weeks and is coiling into what chart structure suggests is a decision point. The $73,700 level above is the immediate overhead resistance; above that is the $75,000 psychological ceiling, which has acted as a load-bearing level since BTC’s last failed breakout attempt.

A weekly close above $75,000 on CPI-driven volume would be the first structural confirmation that the bull case is intact.

RSI on the daily is sitting near 53 – neutral, not oversold, which means there’s no technical floor being built from momentum exhaustion alone. The 200-day EMA is converging with the $67,500 support zone, making that level load-bearing in the near term. A daily close below $67,500 opens the door to $62,000, where significant order book depth and prior accumulation structure sit. MVRV ratio remains below 1.5, suggesting the market hasn’t reached the euphoria zone – but that also means on-chain buying pressure isn’t yet dominant enough to generate self-sustaining momentum.

The bull case requires a CPI-triggered risk-on move through $71,000, then a reclaim of $73,700 on sustained volume, with $75,000 as the confirming close. The bear case activates on a hot print: a rejection at $71,000 that cascades back through the 200-day EMA and targets the $60,000–$62,000 whale accumulation zone. For traders already holding, the downside scenario below $66,000 deserves serious risk modeling before Thursday. The single most important level: $71,000. Hold it post-print and the bull case lives. Lose it and $62,000 becomes the next anchor.