NCE Platform: Gold prices remain under pressure with increased volatility; the safe-haven logic still holds.

On April 6, precious metal prices pulled back in recent trading, and gold futures ended a streak of consecutive gains. NCE noticed that the change in market sentiment was mainly driven by renewed signals of geopolitical tension. Investors’ risk appetite showed clear fluctuations. Data showed that spot gold once fell by about 2% to around $4,665, while gold futures were down about 2.4% to the $4,690 level, with a noticeably heavy short-term outlook. Meanwhile, the market’s previous multi-day uptrend was thus interrupted, reflecting that funds are repricing uncertainty.

From the perspective of driving factors, the rapid rise in energy prices has become a key variable. Data showed that crude oil prices surged sharply within a short period, rising quickly from around $97 to above $105, and at one point approaching $114, fueling inflation expectations again. NCE believes that against this backdrop, market expectations for interest rates remaining at high levels have strengthened, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, and that has put pressure on gold. Although there is still a flight-to-safety sentiment, funds are more inclined to flow into assets with stronger liquidity, which in turn weakens gold’s short-term appeal.

The market previously held some expectations that the situation would ease, driving gold’s consecutive rebounds. However, as related statements shifted to a tougher stance, investors reassessed their risk path, leading to a rapid price pullback. Analysts believe that gold’s current trend is in a phase of a long-versus-short standoff: on the one hand, it benefits from safe-haven demand; on the other hand, it is constrained by interest rates and the U.S. dollar factors, which makes price volatility intensify.

In terms of institutional expectations, some views lowered the estimated average gold price for the full year from $5,200 to $5,000, but still kept the target for the year’s high point around $5,600, indicating that the long-term trend still has support. At the same time, silver prices fell by about 3.1% to $72.6, while platinum rose slightly to above $2,000, reflecting divergence in demand structures among different precious metals.

Overall, NCE believes that the gold market will still maintain a choppy range in the short term, with price action influenced by multiple interwoven factors. Although interest rates and the U.S. dollar put pressure on it, its safe-haven attributes and asset allocation demand continue to provide support. Against the backdrop of ongoing changes in the macro environment and risk sentiment, gold will still look for a new balance range amid volatility.

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Editor: Chen Ping