Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News updates: On April 4 (UTC+8), the U.S. released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing that the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. Meanwhile, the February figure was revised from an initially estimated decline of 92k to a decline of 133k, giving the U.S. dollar short-term support amid a backdrop of reduced odds of Fed rate cuts in 2026. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “swift and decisive” playbook attributed to Trump is starting to fall apart. The market’s next and more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is set to be released, and inflation could spike—some have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points that markets will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, speeches by 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Fed releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. February core PCE price index year-over-year, U.S. February personal spending month-over-month, the final U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized QoQ rate, the final U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ rate, the final U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized QoQ rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index month-over-month; Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI YoY/core CPI YoY and the U.S. March adjusted CPI MoM/core CPI MoM. Friday 22:00, the initial U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectation, the initial U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the U.S. February factory orders month-over-month (source: PANews)