Chief economists of the five major financial institutions discuss economic trends: Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%.

Reporter Meng Ke, Han Yu

2026 is the first year of the “15th Five-Year Plan (Fifteen Five)”—the start of a new cycle. Since this year began, in a serious and thorough way, various regions and departments in China have implemented more proactive and effective macro policies, focusing on leveraging the integrated effects of both existing-stock policies and incremental policies. Economic activity has gotten off to a strong start, and the opening has been promising.

Five chief economists who spoke with reporters from the Securities Daily generally believe that in the first quarter, GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%. China’s economy will deliver a “strong start to the year.” Macro policies will stay tightly aligned with the tasks for the whole year, and will be more proactive and effective, with coordinated and precise efforts.

“Our economy is showing a ‘solid start and a good start to the year’ trend, and most major economic indicators have improved across the board.” Mingming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said in an interview with reporters from the Securities Daily. “From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of added value for industrial enterprises above a designated size was 6.3%. Fixed-asset investment turned from decline to growth; among this, infrastructure investment grew at a high rate of 11.4% year on year, reflecting that investment has continued to improve. Overall, the first-quarter economy is expected to achieve growth close to 5%.”

“Q1 2026 GDP growth is expected to be 4.9%.” Wu Chaoming, chief economist of CVC Financial Holdings and deputy director of the CVC Research Institute, told reporters that with the economy starting strongly at the beginning of the year, it shows characteristics of “strong production, stronger exports, higher investment, and stable consumption.” Driven jointly by the cumulative effects of “stabilizing growth” policies and structural growth in external demand, the first-quarter economy is expected to deliver a “strong start to the year.”

“In the first quarter, consumption is boosted by the Spring Festival, so market demand increases somewhat, and the CPI shows a phase of rising. Consumption growth is boosted in tandem. Overall, the national economy is running steadily, and we expect first-quarter GDP growth to be around 5%,” said Yang Dulong, chief economist at Qianhai Open-Source Fund.

Chen Li, assistant president of Chuan Cai Securities, chief economist, and head of the research institute, said that in the first quarter, China’s macro economy has started strongly and the outlook is good at the start of the year. Major indicators are stabilizing, the structure continues to improve, and market expectations are improving. Industrial production is accelerating in its recovery; the equipment manufacturing industry and the high-tech manufacturing industry are showing strong momentum. The consumer market is growing steadily, the price level is rising moderately, employment and people’s livelihood are well protected, new quality productive forces are being accelerated in cultivation and expansion, and overall economic operations are showing a good trend of steady progress with higher quality as it moves forward—laying a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target.

The 2026 Government Work Report proposes that “this year’s main expected development goals are: economic growth of 4.5%—5%, and in actual work we will strive to achieve even better results,” and it also clarifies that it will “implement more proactive and effective macro policies, and enhance the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of policy-making.”

Chen Li expects that macro policies will always stay tightly aligned with the tasks and goals for the whole year, and will be more proactive and effective, with coordinated and precise efforts. The fiscal policy will step up efforts to improve efficiency, accelerate the landing and effectiveness of ultra-long special government bonds and policy-based financial instruments, expand effective investment, and promote consumption growth. It will adhere to a moderately loose monetary policy to support steady growth, stable employment, and stable prices, keep liquidity reasonably abundant, and lower overall financing costs. At the same time, it will strengthen coordination and connection among industrial, technology, employment, and regional policies, focus on expanding domestic demand, deepening reforms, preventing risks, and improving expectations, and work to remove blockages in the economic cycle, enabling existing-stock policies and incremental policies to overlap and amplify their effectiveness. It will spare no effort to consolidate the foundation for the economy’s positive growth trend, and strive to achieve even better development outcomes.

Mingming said that on the fiscal side, the country will speed up the rollout of special-purpose bond issuance progress and increase the proportion used for project construction. Major “15th Five-Year Plan” projects will also be advanced earlier. In boosting domestic demand, it will accelerate the implementation of plans to increase income for urban and rural residents, as well as use special funds to promote domestic demand through coordination between fiscal and financial measures. On the monetary policy side, it will maintain a moderately loose stance, and appropriately cut reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to release liquidity support. In addition, it will further promote development in areas such as domestic demand and technology through structural monetary policy tools.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said it is expected that this year fiscal expenditure will continue to maintain a fairly large scale, and that structural monetary policy tools will continue to optimize and innovate. Efforts to expand domestic demand will be clearly increased.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            GDP
                                                            Economy