[Top 10 Broker Weekly Strategy] The market is waiting for the right moment to buy the dip! Volatility doesn’t weaken its toughness—set aside strength for long-term positioning

CITIC Securities: Keep focusing on China’s advantaged manufacturing for allocation

While TACO’s likelihood still exists, market funding’s patience has already been largely exhausted. It is expected that the war is nearing the end of this month, but the chances of the Strait of Hormuz being “weaponized,” as well as intermittent disruptions along the supply chain, are increasing. At present, among the five fundamental indicators (dividend/carry returns, going global/exports, AI, PPI, and domestic consumption), only PPI, domestically produced AI, and consumption have not been priced in sufficiently. After the war ends, the most important fundamental factor among them will be the transmission from oil → PPI → corporate earnings; domestically produced AI is a relatively independent industrial change, while the trading of domestic consumption is likely to lag behind PPI. Of course, the trade of “PPI → corporate earnings” will only start once the oil price peaks after the war calms down. As the market cools, allocations should gradually narrow the focus, continuing to focus on China’s advantaged manufacturing.

Guangfa Securities: Expect the market to still need some time to shake out and form a bottom

In the short term, compared with the V-shaped reversal bottom seen during last April’s “reciprocal tariffs” period, there are still differences. The current war situation still has uncertainty: during the market’s decline in the early period, there was no clear increase in volume, and regulatory funds have not yet sent large-scale market-stabilization signals. We expect the market will still need some time to shake out and bottom out, so that sentiment can be fully digested and turnover can be completed through trading.

The premise for this year’s A-share market direction to follow “April’s decision” is that the world does not move toward a full risk-off environment—that is, risk appetite in the market cannot be too poor. Among them, there is one relatively key judgment: will high oil prices trigger a U.S. recession, leading to further global downward revisions to earnings? We believe, based on the current situation, that this concern lacks sufficient basis. Historically, war—high oil prices—high inflation—rate hikes does not always bring a U.S. economic recession. If the U.S. does not experience a clear recession within the year, then after global assets have recently corrected their liquidity expectations for the rest of the year, the outlook is unlikely to head into a full-scale collapse. In that case, the structural opportunities behind the A-share “April’s decision” still remain.

China Merchants Securities: Conflict not yet over—survival in dire straits

Looking ahead to April, external risks facing the A-share market have not been materially eased yet; there is a risk that the U.S.-Iran conflict could escalate beyond expectations. Against this backdrop, further upward pressure on oil prices will intensify concerns in the market about global stagflation. If in mid-to-late April the U.S. military launches a ground offensive, whether due to combat casualties exceeding expectations or due to a surge in oil prices triggering a deep pullback in global stock markets, the Trump administration may be forced to shift toward a de-escalation strategy, and the market may then play out a typical “dilemma reversal” type of行情.

On the domestic front, after the conclusion of the two sessions in March and the release of the “15th Five-Year Plan” outline, key follow-on investment projects will accelerate their implementation, becoming the core driver for a rebound in domestic investment growth. If external shocks lead to a significant rise in economic uncertainty, there is an expectation that the end of April Central Political Bureau meeting may further add to measures to stabilize growth. Taken together, the second half of April will become a critical time window for marginal improvement in the domestic and international environment. After external shocks fade, the market focus in mid-to-late April will shift to areas with strong growth in first-quarter reports. Based on current data, resource sectors such as nonferrous metals and oil refining/petrochemicals, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to become the industries with the most eye-catching earnings growth rates.

Industrial Bank Securities: We should focus more on the opportunity for a “market bottom” to be established and for bottom-fishing and positioning when the situation may upgrade

The market does not need to doubt that this conflict will evolve into a long-term, large-scale comprehensive war again because of President Trump’s recent statements and the surge in oil prices. The base case still remains “possible upgrades in the short term, and a downgrade in the medium term.” For April, what we should pay more attention to is the opportunity for a “market bottom” to be established brought about by possible escalation, and the chances that after both sides enter into substantive negotiations, the market will gradually return to normal and start a repair rally with “taking the lead on my side.”

Therefore, identifying high-quality assets in this round of conflict that were “mispriced” due to emotional momentum, and gradually focusing the portfolio structure toward directions with proven certainty of fundamentals—this is not only the core allocation idea for the April earnings disclosure period, but also the logic shift the market will need to repeatedly strengthen its understanding of and take more seriously once the pricing environment changes this year.

Based on the cumulative涨跌幅 since March, we screen for the leading industries in this round that were more affected by external shocks, mainly concentrated in: AI (domestic semiconductor computing power, PCB, and mid-to-lower reaches—games and consumer electronics), advanced manufacturing (new energy, defense/defense manufacturing), cyclical sectors (nonferrous metals, chemicals, steel, glass and fiberglass), service consumption & new consumption (retail, accessories, pet economy), non-bank financials, etc.

Guotai Junan Securities: Resolving the energy contradiction is the true resilient asset

The market structure today is not a steady state. If the war escalates, today’s so-called resilient assets will also face a further pullback. If de-escalation occurs, it may not be the optimal solution. In fact, the biggest source of shock is energy—so resolving the energy contradiction is the true resilient asset. An increase in energy’s share in global GDP is highly likely.

Based on the information currently available, considering the combined expected values under both scenarios, and adding expectations that the market is more optimistic, we make the following recommendations: 1) As the world enters an energy replenishment cycle, new and old energy sources are likely to resonate together (oil, oil shipping, coal; lithium batteries, wind/solar power, and energy storage); 2) After the “USD mirage” gradually retreats, the financial attributes of bulk commodities will return along with demand recovery, especially for copper, aluminum, and gold; 3) Reassessment of China’s manufacturing: machinery equipment and chemicals. When China manufacturing becomes the world’s “keystone,” persistent exports beyond expectations and capital returning home will also bring new drivers to domestic demand that has been dormant for a long time. Look for structural opportunities after the reversal of factors that suppress performance, such as tourism and scenic spots, seasoning and fermentation products, beer and other alcoholic beverages, pharmaceutical commerce, medical aesthetics, and so on.

China Securities: The key for “spear” and “shield” is still crude oil

With conflict uncertainty still high and the outlook not yet clear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment, and the A-share market may show characteristics of rotational trading through periods of consolidation and rotation. Changes in the crude oil price trend will remain a key variable affecting the market’s recent structure. If later the expectations for conflict de-escalation lead to oil prices stabilizing and falling, and easing expectations rebound, it would be favorable for the repair of growth-stock rallies. From the perspective of the internal environment, the core logic of policy support, funds entering the market, and the re-rating of China assets has not changed; external conflicts have not shaken the long-term slow bull foundation of A-shares. At the same time, in April, listed companies’ earnings will enter a concentrated disclosure period, and market clues will gradually shift toward fundamental verification. Sectors with high earnings certainty and continued improvement in fundamentals and cyclical/sector momentum will become the core direction for fund focus.

Allocation opportunities: First, watch the conflict between the U.S. and Iran as it drives stronger energy and substitution demand; focus on coal, coal chemical, new energy, shipping ports, and oil & gas; also watch for valuation-repair opportunities in the nonferrous metals sector. Second, defensive assets may temporarily outperform; focus on financials (banks), utilities, transportation, and so on. Third, follow the logic of technology innovation, independent controllability, and certainty in industry trends; focus on power equipment, energy storage, storage, semiconductors, computing power, and communication equipment. In the consumption sector, focus on agriculture/forestry/animal husbandry/fisheries, food and beverage, home appliances, and other directions. Over the medium to long term, we still like the dual main line of technology-sector industry drivers and the price-increase clues in cyclical sectors.

Caitong Securities: Focus on the potential bottom-founding window at the end of April

We expect the situation by the end of the month to become clearer (regardless of who has the upper hand). Around the Central Political Bureau meeting in early April, trading may support expectations for stabilizing policies and risk-prevention policies, and there may also be potential good news from a possible early trading of any benefits related to Trump’s visit to China. Combined with the “normal” adjustment trend in March to April, the potential bottom-founding window may be at the end of the month. Also, note the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in early May, which may be another window for “bad news being fully priced in” (especially regarding concerns about inflation and rate hikes).

Against the backdrop of liquidity disruptions and pressure on risk appetite, allocations should adopt a “HALOPLUS” strategy—defensive HALO cash flow plus offensive low-crowdedness growth. On the defensive side, HALO: choose free-cash-flow assets with lower correlation to TMT, high cash flow, heavy-asset models, and high entry barriers to respond calmly and hedge against conflicts. This includes chemicals (agrochemicals, APIs), traditional Chinese medicine, shipping, and power grids, among others. On the offensive side, “PLUS” focuses on growth directions where trading heat remains low and interest-rate sensitivity is relatively lower. Focus on new energy with low medium-term positioning crowds (including space photovoltaics), defense/defense manufacturing (including commercial aerospace), and construction machinery—China’s advantaged manufacturing.

Editor-in-charge: Wang Lulu

Proofreader: Yao Yuan