‘A Surprise Story,’ Says Investor About Plug Power Stock

With the price of oil skyrocketing amid the ongoing crisis in the Gulf, it’s not a big surprise that alternative energy stocks might be attracting increased interest. Enter Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG), which provides hydrogen fuel solutions.

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The company has had a fairly promising couple of months, even before the trouble started brewing in the oil markets. Indeed, the company’s most recent quarter was full of promising news, including both top- and bottom-line improvements.

While the roughly $710 million in sales for 2025 represented a 12.9% year-over-year increase, Q4 2025 revenue of $225.2 million translated into a 17.6% jump from Q4 2024. However, the company’s gross margin enjoyed an even stronger turnaround, going from -122.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.4% in the latest quarter.

With a new CEO and $8 billion global sales funnel, optimism is clearly present. The 37% gain since its March 2 earnings call reflects plenty of bullishness among investors.

However, it’s not a unanimous viewpoint, as expressed by investor Ryan Vanzo.

“Even if Plug Power’s prospects are looking more optimistic, the next three years should still result in massive dilution for shareholders,” worries the 5-star investor.

Vanzo points out that the company’s total shares outstanding have increased significantly during the last decade. That means that owners who have been holding PLUG since 2016 have seen their percentage ownership dwindle, he adds.

“This pace of dilution is simply too rapid for investors to profit,” Vanzo argues.

And that’s not the investor’s only concern. Beyond the company’s cash burn, Vanzo points out that hydrogen fuel cell systems aren’t economically viable for most use cases. Moreover, there’s no clear consensus on when hydrogen fuel cells will succeed in becoming competitive on price alone, with some estimates predicting another decade or more, he notes.

That leads the investor to offer a more bearish conclusion regarding PLUG, despite its strong performance year-to-date.

“While Plug Power has been a surprise story thus far in 2026, the long-term outlook remains bleak from an investment standpoint,” concludes Vanzo. (To watch Ryan Vanzo’s track record, click here)

Wall Street presents a mixed opinion when it comes to PLUG. With 4 Buys, 7 Holds, and 2 Sells, PLUG carries a consensus Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $2.58 points to gains of 7%. (See PLUG stock forecast)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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