OPEC+ announces symbolic production increase in May; Bank of America assesses the impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions

LootboxPhobia · 2026-04-06T14:08:19+00:00

OPEC+ announced a production increase of 206k barrels per day by May 2026, but due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil production in many Middle Eastern countries remains restricted. Approximately 12.6 million barrels per day of liquid hydrocarbon production in the Middle East has been interrupted, mainly affecting Iraq and Kuwait, and resuming production will take a considerable amount of time. If the restart is not achieved, it is estimated that there could be a loss of 400k to 1.1 million barrels per day of capacity.

LootboxPhobia

2026-04-06 14:08:19

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Investing.com – According to Bank of America, OPEC+ announced on Sunday a 206k bpd increase in production quotas for May 2026. The output increase involves eight OPEC+ countries, which had previously announced additional voluntary production cuts in April 2023 and November.

Bank of America described the increase as symbolic, noting that production from the Middle East’s core OPEC oil producers remains constrained due to Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Based on Rystad data cited by Bank of America, roughly 12.6 million bpd of Middle East liquid hydrocarbon production is currently disrupted. This includes 10.6 million bpd of oil, 0.9 million bpd of condensate, and 1.1 million bpd of natural gas liquids production.

The disruptions have hit Iraq and Kuwait the hardest, with most of their pre-war output currently shut in. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also affected, mainly in offshore operations, but they have sustained substantial production and flows through alternate routes via the Strait of Hormuz.

Bank of America said the shut-ins in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are mostly orderly. However, the shut-ins in Iraq and Kuwait have been more abrupt, mainly due to security and storage constraints rather than strategic considerations underground.

The bank expects Saudi, the UAE, and Qatar’s oil fields to restart within days to weeks. Some of Iraq and Kuwait’s oil fields may take weeks to two to three months, and may require new drilling. Rystad estimates that if currently shut-in fields are not brought back online within six months, the Middle East could lose 400k to 1.1 million bpd of oil production capacity.

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