Just came across something interesting about market timing that dates back over 150 years. There's this old theory from Samuel Benner in 1875 about economic cycles that's honestly kind of wild when you look at the historical patterns.

So the basic idea is that markets move in these recurring periods, and if you understand which cycle you're in, you can actually position yourself better. Benner identified three main phases that repeat:

First, there are the panic years – these are the rough times when financial crises hit and markets collapse. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and if the pattern holds, 2035 and 2053. During these periods when to make money isn't by selling everything in fear. Actually it's the opposite – you want to hold and wait it out because panic selling usually locks in losses.

Then you've got the boom years where prices surge and recovery is strong. This is when the smart money takes profits. Years like 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020 – and interestingly we're supposedly entering one now in 2026. These are your periods when to make money by actually selling and locking in gains.

The third phase is the recession and decline years – 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, 2040. This is when prices are depressed and assets are cheap. Historically these have been the absolute best times to accumulate, whether it's stocks, land, or commodities. You buy here and hold until the boom years arrive.

The strategy is pretty straightforward: accumulate during recessions when everything's on sale, ride the boom years and take profits when markets are running hot, and stay defensive during panic years without making emotional decisions.

Now, important caveat – this isn't some magic formula. Markets get influenced by politics, wars, technological shifts, and a hundred other variables. But as a long-term framework for understanding market cycles and identifying periods when to make money, Benner's theory has held up surprisingly well across different eras.

If you're thinking about portfolio positioning, understanding these cycles can help you think differently about timing and opportunity. Worth keeping an eye on what's happening in the market right now and how it aligns with these patterns.