Catalytic directions of holiday news sentiment

Praise first, then watch; limit-up keeps coming[TaoGuba]

Preface:
On the afternoon of the last trading day before the holiday, I entered to bottom-fish. At the time, in the public area I said I would enter to bottom-fish. Now I’m at 65% invested. On Tuesday, as long as you dare to sell off, at this level I’ll definitely buy more the deeper it falls. As for the index at this point, I’d rather get stuck in a loss and still go in to pick up bloody shares. There’s no mystery—it’s just sector rotation into stronger stocks.

There isn’t any particular news catalyst during the holiday. It’s still the same mess in the Middle East—both sides don’t want to fight, both want face, but neither wants to back down. What they’re using now is pressuring the other side to be the first to show weakness, and they’re tugging back and forth against each other.
During the holiday, the outside-the-market discussions focused a lot on the price increase of (fiber optics and AI computing power). You can pay attention to opportunities in those sectors. Before the holiday, both the fiber optics sector and computing power had already shown some performance, so you can track the persistence.

1. Topic Recap:
1. Biopharma:
1 limit-up:
LaiMei Pharmaceuticals, China Pharma

2 limit-ups:
Chongyao Holdings

6 limit-ups:
Jinzhou Pharmaceutical

Brief thoughts:
My view hasn’t changed. Subjectively, I don’t think there are sector-wide opportunities. The strength over the past few trading days before the holiday can be taken as the market’s avoidance behavior by funds due to the index’s weak continuity—not as an index rebound, and certainly not as a sector-wide reversal. Whether it’s the news backdrop or growth prospects, I can’t see any sustained sector opportunities. Stock-specific opportunities may appear interspersed with sustained “block-holding” behavior.
One-sentence summary: There’s no sustained sector opportunity to be seen. But innovative drugs with localized earnings growth may have a chance for “block-holding” aggregation. So my suggestion is to be cautious when looking for broad upside in the sector. However, that said, the few—very specific—innovative drugs that can form such “block-holding” behavior could be captured along their trend lines.
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2. Middle East turmoil:**
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Brief thoughts:**
The “Golden Fur” mentality has already started to crack. They want to end the conflict, but the “Persian cat” won’t give them face and refuses to give them a step down. The Golden Fur continues bombing out of sheer grit—it’s basically insisting because they can’t get anything out of it, so they’ve already grown a bit impatient. The longer the war drags on, the more torment it becomes through the consumption of their funds. Let me spell it out for you—once you understand it, you’ll get it: in the recent period, the hawkish U.S. has been bombing the Persian cat’s aircraft frequently, with a real danger of them being shot down (already lost 3 aircraft). The fundamental reason is that they don’t want to bomb with precision-guided bombs, because the cost is too high. Even one is, at the low end, several million U.S. dollars— they simply can’t afford that burn rate.
Right now, the reason there’s a risk of aircraft being shot down is that they’re using inertial-guidance bombs. Inertial-guidance bombs require the aircraft to fly at extremely low altitude to ensure the hit rate. Inertial-guidance bombs are only about one-fifth—or even one-tenth—the price of precision-guided bombs. Since they’re cheaper, they can only sacrifice safety risk. Previously, aircraft using precision-guided bombs could drop them from hundreds of kilometers away and then not manage them. Precision-guided bombs can track and lock onto targets on their own, so the Persian cat’s air-defense system can’t even see the aircraft, which means it can’t pose a threat to the aircraft. But inertial-guidance bombs can’t hit the target unless they are dropped right over the target’s head. Just on that point alone, at least two layers of information are revealed: either the U.S. funding can’t keep up, or its production capacity can’t keep up. For a war, no matter which “can’t keep up” it is, it doesn’t support a long-term war effort.
So you need to look through the problem to its essence—do you understand now, my babies?

Also, the U.S. can’t take it anymore: it can’t endure the Persian cat’s sustained blockade and the retaliation against its Middle East allies. If the Persian cat is driven into a corner, it has the capability to paralyze the entire Middle East’s infrastructure. By then, if the Persian cat gets pushed into an “oil-lamp age,” the whole Middle East will very likely follow into an “oil-lamp age.” At that point, oil prices spiking to above 150—and in extreme cases above 200—is definitely on the table. Then the U.S. inflation will definitely get blown up.
So although both sides are still continuing to throw hard words and strike each other, both sides are still holding back. There’s fundamentally no forcing either side down to a dead end. The real dead end is when the Middle East enters the oil-lamp age. That’s when it will be the darkest moment for global capital markets. Right now, even though everyone is falling hard, actually it’s because they’re worried about the real darkest moment.

3. Commercial space:

1. Commercial space:

Brief thoughts:
If within the next few trading days the sector can’t strongly repair, you need to reduce expectations. Sector-wide opportunities are being worn down continuously by limited capital. There are too many lurking positions inside the sector. On top of that, the broader market’s continued shrinking volume provides no sector-wide “identity” leader. Without a clear sector lead, it’s getting harder and harder for the sector to break out of a sector-wide opportunity. The difficulty keeps increasing. My suggestion: dial down subjective judgment.

4. Fiber optics sector:
1 limit-up:
DEKO Li, Weiting Electric, Shijia Technology, CMCC Electronics, Fujing Technology, Yitian Shares, Huashengchang,

2 limit-ups:
Xinneng Taishan, Huiyuan Communications

Brief thoughts:
The sector’s individual stocks rotate on and off intermittently in performance. It has never truly turned into a sector-wide trend acceleration. There are both factors from the overall market environment and reasons related to short-term funds rotating without enough focus. Judging from Friday’s sector performance, some trend-acceleration funds entered. Next week’s performance is crucial. If it can resonate with the index and push higher together, then it’s reasonable to take a more positive and actively bullish stance on the sector. At present, the sector’s capacity representative tickers already have their respective emotional representatives, and the structure is also very good. What’s left is for the sector’s “capacity middle troops” to signal and lead to accelerate the offensive. Once a trend acceleration forms, it will be a rare April window for taking upside bets driven by market sentiment.

Thanks to Jinfen 25000 points for the Heat Ranking #1: @Evil Great Octopus

Heat Ranking #2: @junekool @Suki莹

Heat Ranking #3: @Sccpx

Thank you to everyone who contributed heat, brothers and sisters:
@Evil Great Octopus @junekool @Suki莹 @Sccpx @Night’s Beauty Makes People Swoon @If You Have Time or No Time, Do a Cartwheel @Orange Little God @Xiao Ming Trades Stocks @All The Way Rainbower @Eventwood @Amatras @Compound Growth 11 Times @RK Li Li @Ruo Sheng sy @Yang Danran FF @Orange a z @I’m a Rabbit @Gu Dao Darkly Mournful @Cheng Tao Tao @Zhuo Niu Niu @After the Storm Must Come Sunshine @Nickname Has Already Been Used @ReachForStar @Turning the World’s Divine Power @Magician Seventeen @Ditto888 @Xia Xia’s Scalpels of Grass @Fan Jian xian sheng @bb11 @Long for the Future 666 @Never Mind @Huang Guibin @Mo Qian Yu Yin @askingmo @Hua Qing @Minzhong Stock Trader @New-Era Stock Trader @Little Little Rabbit Ya Ya Ya @Shuo Ci @A Smile, Greatness @llkkll @412 is 22 @Sloth7 @Knife Brother Came @Fu Guang Dong Fang @Xiaoshan Super Home @Stock Dance Inspires Hearts Drum @Evil Great Octopus @Suki莹 @junekool @Make Money to Raise Pigs @Little Little Rabbit Ya Ya Ya @If You Have Time or No Time, Do a Cartwheel @Sccpx @Nirvana Reborn W @Orange Little God @A Smile, Greatness @Fu Guang Dong Fang @Never Mind @New-Era Stock Trader @Orange a z @Mo Qian Yu Yin @Charmaine66 @Acy Cloud @I’m a Rabbit @Gu Dao Darkly Mournful @At At At @Huang Huang 113 @Eat Without Cutting In @Take a Name Whenever, Prompting That It’s Already Been Used @Unchanging Memories @Xia Xia’s Scalpels of Grass @Long for the Future 666 @RK Li Li @OSheng @llkkll @askingmo @Time Travel, Fleeting @Huang Guibin @After the Storm Must Come Sunshine @Shuo Ci @Casually 花现代 @So That We Can Not Choose @Big Bear Has No Glasses @Fan Jian xian sheng @Minzhong Stock Trader @Sloth7 @Evil Great Octopus @Make Money to Raise Pigs @Suki莹 @junekool @Xu Da Long @hong太阳888888 @Inori0991 @Orange Little God @If You Have Time or No Time, Do a Cartwheel @Sccpx @Little Little Rabbit Ya Ya Ya @Mo Qian Yu Yin @Eating Dirt’s Husky @Never Mind @Stock Dance Inspires Hearts Drum @Xia Xia’s Scalpels of Grass @12345 Haha @Yang Danran FF @At At At @Just Once, Even If It Ends Here @Hu Da Cong @Jin Song Hu Hua Jia @RK Li Li @I’m a Rabbit @askingmo @llkkll @Li Ke Rui @Knife Brother Came @szduncan @A Smile, Greatness @Minzhong Stock Trader @Mu Shan7 @Sloth7 @Cheng Tao Tao @Big Bear Has No Glasses @Long for the Future 666 @New-Era Stock Trader @Magician Seventeen @Huang Guibin @After the Storm Must Come Sunshine
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Jinfen Highlights, remember it always: **
@Xia Xia’s Scalpels of Grass @yyyy333 @junekool @New Beginning Methods @Samsung Chef @Hu Zhou Stock Trader @Double Xi Joy @Arriving Today @zdz Limit-Up Is Here @Shuo Ci @After the Storm Must Come Sunshine @738610 @Kings Mountain Fire @Run Yu Ci Qin @Compass Pointer 1103 @The Chicken Earns Tuition @Trynnnn @Knife Brother Came @Stars Shine Brightly @Gu Dao Darkly Mournful @Li Ke Rui @askingmo @Huang Guibin @Grassland of Weeds @y No Longer Hesitate @Can’t Achieve Fame, No Return Oath @Qing and Happiness @Unlucky Immunity @Orange Little God @Stir Fry, Tastes Even Better @Make It Happen @Big Bear Has No Glasses @Who’s the Master @RK Li Li @Evil Great Octopus @Starry8 @szduncan @Zhou Yu Zi Ya 5555 @Sloth7

Thanks to the brothers who contributed encouragement tickets

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Market Snapshot:
On the last trading day before the holiday, the market shaped up like “nothing but talk and no action” (jiou bu li). There was no decent resistance all day. No organized counterattack took shape either. What happened was that only in the afternoon did some brave players step in to fight it out to bet that the index would stop falling—but it didn’t form a resonance. Funds were still afraid of the uncertainty in the Middle East, so nobody was willing to step in and follow through on long positions. Good news, though: the fewer lurking funds there are, the more easily a bottom can form. If bullish capital increases instead, the early-hand advantage would be lost.