[U.S. Stock Market Open] Two days left until Trump's deadline; U.S. and Iran continue negotiations; Dow Jones slightly soft (updating continuously)

Less than two days remain until 8:00 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time—the U.S. “final deadline,” or 8:00 a.m. Wednesday Hong Kong time. The U.S. and Iran continue negotiations. Iran said it has replied to the U.S. with Iran’s demands, while Trump still has not responded. However, the market is watching to see whether Trump will carry out the so-called “devastating strike” he claimed, while Iran is making further diplomatic efforts, hoping that countries will pressure Trump to adopt a humanitarian stance.

Stocks in the U.S. steadied. The Dow fell 8 points to 46,496. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,589. The Nasdaq rose 0.2% to 21,913.

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At a press conference in Tehran, Iran, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei (Esmail Baghaei) said that when necessary, Tehran will “spare no effort” to defend the country. He accused the U.S. and Israel of having “no red lines” and ignoring international law. Baghaei rejected the reported U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed through intermediaries, describing the proposal as “illogical” and unacceptable, and saying that it has already submitted some visions and ideas.

He emphasized that negotiations cannot take place under threats, and insisted that Iran’s national security and interests are the primary criteria for reaching any agreement.

For the market, the positive view of Iran’s response is that the two countries finally seem to be in dialogue.

Earlier the same day, Baghaei said Iran would never yield to pressure. He said: “A few days ago, they made a proposal through intermediaries. This U.S. 15-point plan was conveyed via Pakistan and some other friendly countries.” He added: “These kinds of proposals are both highly ambitious and also appear unusual and illogical.”

He emphasized that Iran has its own framework. Baghaei added: “Based on our own interests and considerations, we have compiled a book of our demands from the past and the present.” The foreign ministry spokesperson dismissed the claim that “contact with intermediaries means weakness.”

“The Islamic Republic of Iran quickly and courageously presents its views on a certain plan—this should not be seen as a sign of surrender to the enemy.” “From the moment discussions about initiating it began, we were ready with a response. When necessary, we will clearly let you know.”

“Pakistan proposes a two-phase ceasefire plan”

Reuters, citing sources, reported that Iran and the U.S. have received a plan aimed at ending hostilities. The plan could take effect as early as today and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan has drafted a framework agreement to end hostilities and delivered it to Iran and the U.S. last night. The framework is based on a “two-phase plan”: first, an immediate ceasefire, followed by the signing of a comprehensive agreement. A source said: “All elements must reach consensus within today.” The source added that the initial understanding would be drafted in the form of a memorandum of understanding (MoU), with Pakistan completing the finalization; Pakistan is currently the only channel for communication between the two sides in talks.

Reuters reported that the expected agreement would involve Iran committing to abandon the development of nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions and the release of Iran’s overseas assets.

Al Jazeera, citing a Pakistani official, said that “emergency diplomacy” is under way. The official said the issue they face is essentially dealing with “kids brawling.” They must find a way to soothe everyone’s pride and build a bridge across an ocean of bottomless mistrust. The report said they are communicating with religious figures and diplomats, while also talking with military commanders—clearly implying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iraq gets permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz

It was reported on the market that Iran has exempted Iraq, allowing it to transit the Strait of Hormuz without any restrictions. According to Reuters, the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has asked its customers to submit crude oil offtake plans within 24 hours.

Axios reported that mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are making final efforts to secure a 45-day ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

A senior Iranian official warned that if the U.S. escalates attacks against Iran, global energy routes outside the Strait of Hormuz could be threatened.

Reuters cited an SOMO document saying: “Given the above situation, to ensure the continuity and stability of crude oil export business, we urge your company to submit the offtake plan within 24 hours, so that your offtake arrangements can be handled in a timely manner, including vessel nominations and contract cargo quantities, and fully in compliance with the agreed terms and conditions.” Since the war began, Iraq’s oil production has collapsed to about 800k barrels per day.

Strait of Hormuz — current shipping conditions

The document continued: “We hereby reiterate that all loading terminals, including Basra oil terminals and their related facilities, remain fully operational. SOMO is fully prepared to execute all contract offtake plans without restrictions.”

Trump posted on social media Truth Social: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time！（Eastern Time Tuesday 8:00 p.m.）”, implying that this is the deadline for his final ultimatum, which is 8:00 a.m. Wednesday Hong Kong time.

Democrats said Trump’s latest threats against Iran are “madness,” and warned that attacking civilian facilities could constitute war crimes.

Worth noting is that the situation is urgent—any development could reverse the current market sentiment.

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