Jinyutang: Gold bullish and bearish battles and other market movements have emerged. In the evening, short-term pressure, so initiate a short position first.

On April 6, from a technical perspective and the broader direction, gold is still in a weak zone. Although the gold price saw a choppy rebound in the short term, from a technical standpoint, its overall bearish trend has not undergone a fundamental change.

At present, the gold price remains below the 200-period exponential moving average (currently around the 4809 level), indicating that medium- to long-term downward pressure is still in place. The MACD indicator shows that its fast line has fallen below the slow line, and both are also below the zero axis; the negative histogram bars continue to expand, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually building up. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 52. While it is in the neutral range, it also indicates that the momentum of the pullback from the overbought area is gradually weakening.

In the analysis from the daily chart, after gold tried to stabilize and move higher but ran into resistance, it has temporarily stabilized above the 4600 level and is currently running in a range-bound pattern. At the moment, the key support below gold is still the integer level of 4600; this is the intraday low for the gold price’s decline and also the location where the previous major sell-off bottomed out and rebounded but then met resistance. If it breaks further below, attention should then shift to the 4550 level near last Thursday’s gold decline low;

As for the pressure above gold, you can watch the 4700 level near last Thursday’s high point after the gold price probed the bottom and rebounded. Next, the upper area is again the 4800 level—where gold began to fall after last Thursday’s rally met resistance. Currently, the 5-day moving average has formed a golden cross and is turning upward; the MACD indicator has also formed a golden cross, indicating that gold has a rebound demand. However, the KDJ and RSI indicators’ golden crosses turn downward, showing that the gold rebound is still clearly suppressed. Overall, it indicates that bulls and bears are still in a strong tug-of-war, and the market needs to see how the行情 develops further.

Right now, the price at the 4600 level lines up exactly with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March sell-off, so it has important technical significance. If gold can effectively hold this level, it may rebound further; however, if it breaks below, it could trigger a larger pullback.

Overall, although the current Iran-Iraq ceasefire talks are providing gold with short-term support, the rise in oil prices that triggers inflation concerns and the market expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates are still exerting significant downward pressure on gold bulls. At present, market liquidity is relatively insufficient, and combined with the Easter holiday factor, short-term trading still needs to be handled with caution!

As for current evening short-term trading, since 4700 is the primary near-term resistance level, for now you may consider taking a sell order (short) around the 4700 level as a resistance play for the evening. A stop-loss for the short can be placed around 4725, and then you can position accordingly above. For the downside, you should still focus on support around 4600–4630. In the evening, focus on the 4600 level support; if strong support at 4600 continues not to break, then today you mainly look at the 4600–4700 range for long-and-short opportunities. But if the market breaks below 4600 in the evening, then you should watch support at the 4550 level!

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