CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Petrochemical Morning Report on April 3

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Rubber: Volatility Intensifies

On Thursday, domestic natural rubber, 16600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous day on a like-for-like basis; Thailand No. 20 mixed rubber, 15900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day on a like-for-like basis.

Raw Material Side: Thailand rubber water finished at 81.0 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht/kg from the previous day on a like-for-like basis; Thailand cup lump finished at 59.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht/kg from the previous day on a like-for-like basis. Yunnan has been gradually starting tapping; rubber water finished at 15.6 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg from the previous day on a like-for-like basis; Hainan has halted tapping.

As of March 29, 2026, China’s social inventory of natural rubber stood at 1.35 million tons, down 10k tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.8% . China’s dark rubber social total inventory was 918k tons, down 0.3%. Of these, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 0.8%; Yunnan fell by 2.2%; Vietnam 10 fell by 14%; NR inventory subtotal fell by 6%. China’s light rubber social total inventory was 431k tons, down 1.7% from the previous period. Of these, old whole-milk rubber fell by 1.1% on a like-for-like basis; 3L fell by 7% on a like-for-like basis; RU inventory subtotal remained stable.

Viewpoint: With the arrival of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, the global industry is about to enter the 2026 annual tapping season. In China, Yunnan and Hainan will be the first to start tapping. Overall weather and phenological conditions are relatively favorable, so the supply side largely matches expectations. After downstream tire companies resume operations, production is relatively stable. Geopolitical conflict events are still ongoing recently, but their impact on the natural rubber industrial chain is relatively limited. Overall, there is no major change in fundamentals; in the short term, prices are expected to follow market expectations for improvement and rebound. Looking ahead, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding geopolitical conflict and the monetary policy choices aimed at responding to high prices, leading to a high level of uncertainty on the demand side (tire consumption). It is expected that unilateral price fluctuations will remain quite intense.

(Cai Wenjie — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0022568, for reference only)

PX：

On the supply-and-demand side, both supply and demand are reduced. In Asia, industry operating rates fell by 3.2 pct month over month to 69.5%; China’s PX industry operating rates fell by 3.0 pct month over month to 81.0%. The main reason for the reduced operating rate this period is planned maintenance within unit schedules. Since domestic refineries still hold a certain amount of feedstock inventory, preventive de-rating has not yet shown clearly; watch the situation of “preserving oil and reducing aromatics (保油减化)”. On the demand side, non-scheduled maintenance for PTA in April is expected to increase, but the relatively tight spot availability lowers the probability of a resonance between fundamentals and costs. The PX fundamentals are relatively strong within the industrial chain. As PX maintenance season begins, inventories from March are expected to shift from building stock to drawing down. The drawdown pattern is expected to continue at least through the second quarter. US President Trump claimed the war against Iran has achieved “rapid, decisive, overwhelming victory,” and said he would never allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. Over the next two to three weeks, there will be intense strikes. Affected by this, oil prices surged sharply and US stocks fell. However, during last night’s trading session, news emerged that Iran is drafting a passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. Oil prices immediately dropped sharply afterward. Even so, WTI crude oil still reached a new high in this US-Iran conflict, and the calendar spread strengthened in parallel. Yesterday night, polyester rallied at the open but weakened afterward; ahead of the holiday, there was limited willingness of funds to chase higher. Before the Strait of Hormuz clearly resumes navigation, you may consider rolling long positions on the PX May contract on pullbacks. The support zone is 9000-9200. It is recommended to participate cautiously. PX5-9 and 7-9 can consider long calendar spreads on dips.

Related Market News (Source: China Fiber Information Network)

Units: In the domestic market, Jinling Petrochemical’s 700k-ton maintenance is currently postponed to mid-April, with maintenance lasting about 55 days. Qingdao Liding’s 1M-ton shutdown maintenance started at the end of March, with a planned restart in early May. Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million tons will see a load decrease at the beginning of April. Units with changes account for 3.9% of total domestic capacity. In Asia, South Korea’s Ulsan SKGC/JX (1.0 million tons) will shut down for maintenance in early April, with restart timing not determined; global capacity share is 1.2%.

(Li Sijin — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0021407, for reference only)

PTA：

On the supply-and-demand side, supply decreases but demand stays stable. This period, Yisheng New Materials, Baoxin, and Sanfangxiang reduced operating rates; PTA industry operating rates fell by 2.8 pct month over month to 79.0%, still at a relatively high level for the same period in recent years. On the demand side, stock drawdown for greige cloth continues; small orders are placed one after another. Terminal factory operating rates are partially lowered; some factories that have consumed their raw-material stock almost entirely have already reduced load or shut down. Pay attention to raw-material stocking at the beginning of the month. Polyester industry operating rates fell by 0.2 pct month over month to 86.6%, and the probability of production cuts in April is increasing. PTA processing fees have been compressed to the lowest level in nearly half a year. It is expected that more planned outages and de-rating parking units will occur outside the schedule, and the supply-demand picture for PTA in April is expected to improve. Overall, cost-side support still exists; negative feedback from polyester is unlikely to become significantly evident in the short term, and the magnitude of production cuts will be limited. Currently, the polyester industrial chain is trading more on future expectations, while domestic actual supply reductions are not significant. Watch for truly substantive PTA production cuts. However, given the high probability that the war escalates further, PTA cost support is strong. For TA in May, you may consider going long by rolling on pullbacks; the support zone is 6200-6400. You can watch for opportunities to go long the TA 5-9 and 7-9 calendar spreads.

Related Market News (Source: China Fiber Information Network)

PTA Units: Yisheng New Materials totals 7.2 million tons starting April 2 with a load reduction to 30% operating. Fujian Baoxin (2.5 million tons) reduced load from the end of March to 60-70% operation. Sanfangxiang (3.2 million tons) reduced load and is running. Individual units make small adjustments to operating rates. Units with changes account for 3.9% of capacity share. Ineos (1.1 million tons) is running normally; maintenance in mid-April is preliminarily expected. Hengli totals 5.0 million tons running normally and plans maintenance starting April 10.

Polyester Units: Rongsheng long filament (100k tons) is scheduled to stop for maintenance at the end of March; some other units adjust operating loads. Tongheng’s restart has not produced output yet, so it is temporarily not included in operating rates. Units with changes account for 0.1% of capacity share.

Production & Sales: On Thursday, production and sales for Jiangsu-Zhejiang polyester filament remained subdued; by around 4:00 PM, the estimated average production-sales ratio was slightly above 20%.

(Li Sijin — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0021407, for reference only)

EG：

On the supply-and-demand side, supply decreases but demand stays stable. In China, ethylene glycol industry operating rates fell by 2.0 pct month over month to 63.9%. Of these, coal-syngas-based load increased by 1.5 pct month over month to 74.8%, which is at a high level for the same period in recent years. Coal-syngas-based ethylene glycol profits have been significantly repaired as prices rise. It is expected that after maintenance ends, the probability of units increasing load and producing is higher. Overseas, multiple units have seen more unplanned maintenance due to force majeure, and combined with disruptions to Middle East import transportation, the extent of inventory drawdown for ethylene glycol in April will be further intensified. Monthly import reductions are expected to be about 3-700k tons; watch overseas ethylene prices. In late March, ethylene glycol export inquiries increased significantly, with buyers from India and South Korea showing stronger抢出口 (stronger export-chasing) intent. Spot ethylene glycol basis and calendar spreads strengthened. Overall, ethylene glycol is expected to rise due to cost lift and a significant supply-side shrinkage. Going long on dips is the main approach, with support at 4700-4800. Watch for the effects of contract month switching. For EG 5-9 and 7-9 calendar spreads, the 100-level range can be used to roll long on pullbacks.

Related Market News (Source: China Fiber Information Network)

Units: For oil-based production, Far East Lian’s 500k-ton unit is running but operating load has declined. Sinopec Quanzhou’s 500k-ton unit recently tripped; the restart time is pending. For coal-syngas-based production, Tongliao Jinneng Coal’s 300k-ton unit has recently been temporarily stopped; production is expected to resume on April 3. Henan Coal Industry (Puyang) has a 200k-ton unit planned to discharge after Qingming Festival. Xinjiang Tianye (Phase III) has a 600k-ton unit running with increased load. Qiānxī Coal Chemical’s 300k-ton unit will start a shutdown maintenance of about 20 days starting early April. Hong Sifang’s 300k-ton unit is running normally. It is expected that parking maintenance will occur by the end of April. Shaanxi Yulin Chemical’s 1.8 million tons started part of its capacity maintenance on March 11. One line’s maintenance has already finished, and the other line is planned to begin parking maintenance on April 15. Yunneng Chemical’s 400k-ton unit started parking maintenance on March 12, with an expected duration around one month. Zhongkun’s 600k-ton unit (one line) has already begun maintenance. Units with changes account for 11.7% of capacity share.

(Li Sijin — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0021407, for reference only)

PF：

On the supply-and-demand side, supply increases but demand stays stable. Operating rates for direct-spun short polyester fiber used for spinning increased by 3.5 pct month over month to 92.5%. Given the continuous rise in inventory pressure, some companies have plans to stop or reduce operating rates. On the demand side, high prices suppress downstream procurement; market transactions are sluggish, with insufficient end orders. Downstream mainly focuses on digesting inventory. Constrained by high raw-material prices, some downstream companies have shifted toward increasing the proportion of recycled short polyester fiber. The recovery pace of spinning mill operating rates is slow. Polyester fiber operating rates are flat month over month at 61.0%, currently at a five-year same-period low. Overall, cost-side support is relatively strong. It is expected that PF’s June contract price will follow raw-material prices and trade with a slightly bullish range-bound pattern. The support zone is 7800-8000.

Related Market News (Source: China Fiber Information Network)

Production & Sales: On Thursday, sales of direct-spun short polyester factories improved moderately. As of around 3:00 PM, the average production-sales ratio was 72%.

(Li Sijin — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0021407, for reference only)

PR：

Supply side is strong. On the supply side, the industry’s predicted operating rates for bottle chips increased by 0.9 pct month over month to 72.9%. Due to announcements released one after another regarding force majeure or delayed fulfillment, mainstream big manufacturers have reduced contract volumes. The supply side remains strong, and in the future, operating rates for the polyester bottle chip industry are expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, the terminal market is in a peak procurement season; soft drink season is in summer. As domestic factories place orders, downstream operating continues to recover. Overall, cost-side support is relatively strong. It is expected that PR’s May market will trade with a range-bound but slightly bullish bias, with the support zone at 7800-8000. Watch for opportunities to go long PR and short PF.

(Li Sijin — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0021407, for reference only)

Soda Ash：

On Thursday, soda ash futures fell slightly, while spot prices remained largely stable. On Thursday, commodity markets saw more gains than losses, and market sentiment improved somewhat. This week, soda ash maintenance increased, with output down by 0.02 million tons month over month to 1M tons. Downstream demand is temporarily stable. The latest alkali plant inventory increased by 0.21 million tons this week Monday over Monday to 400k tons. The latest delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.30 million tons compared with the previous week to 3.45 million tons. Last week, photovoltaic glass had one production line under cold repair; one line for float glass was fired up and one line was under cold repair. This week, photovoltaic glass has one production line under cold repair, and float glass has two production lines under cold repair. Recently, the combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined slightly. Demand for heavy soda ash has edged down, while demand for light soda ash remains stable. Procurement enthusiasm in the midstream and downstream is generally average. Soda ash imports rose to 500k tons in January-February, and exports rose to 0.4010 million tons. On the macro side, recently China’s domestic real estate sales data rose month over month, above the same period last year; overseas macro impact is relatively neutral (the US dollar index is up, and geopolitical concerns continue), and there are fewer policy disruptions domestically. Overall, in the short term, soda ash supply is high and demand is slightly lower; market sentiment is weak, and soda ash is likely to remain weak in range-bound trading for now. On the ledger side, on Thursday, soda ash registered warrants increased by 2,500 lots to 4,288 lots.

In the short term, soda ash futures are weak and range-bound; for SA2605, the intraday reference range is 1150-1180.

(Hu Peng — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0019445, for reference only)

Glass：

On Thursday, glass futures fell slightly, and spot prices stayed stable to lower. In the short term, glass fundamentals show both supply and demand are weak. Supply pressure has eased. This week, glass output fell month over month; downstream procurement enthusiasm increased; inventories fell month over month. Latest glass inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 500k tons, up 12.0% year over year. Last week, glass had one production line under cold repair and one line fired up; this week, glass has two lines under cold repair. Recently, daily melting volume has declined; the latest operating-day melting volume is 143,095 T/D, down about 9.7% year over year. From January to February, China’s domestic residential completion area fell 27.9% year over year (the decline widened). Recently, real estate sales data rose month over month and is above the same period last year. Latest orders for further processing of glass increased by 0.7 days month over month to 6.8 days. In the short term, glass supply is declining, and demand is dragging prices; overall, futures prices remain weak and range-bound.

In the short term, glass futures prices remain weak and range-bound; for FG2605, the intraday reference range is 980-1010.

(Hu Peng — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0019445, for reference only)

Polyolefins：Wide-Ranged Volatility

As of the close of daytime trading on April 2, the L lead contract rose by 245 yuan/ton to 8,625 yuan/ton on a daily basis. The LLDPE East China basis weakened by 152 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton on a daily basis. For the PP lead contract, the daily gain was 366 yuan/ton to 9,130 yuan/ton, and the wire-drawing PP East China basis weakened by 316 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton on a daily basis.

In early to mid-March, as the Middle East conflict escalated and concerns about navigation through the Strait of Hormuz pushed sentiment, crude oil, naphtha, ethylene / propylene surged sharply and polyolefin prices quickly spiked. But since late March, geopolitical tensions have eased; international oil prices have pulled back from highs, weakening cost-side support. Meanwhile, although downstream sectors such as plastic compounding, films, and injection molding saw some recovery in operating rates, overall they remain far below normal levels before the holiday. Resistance to high-priced feedstocks is evident, and procurement mainly consists of small orders driven by actual needs. Market trades are quiet. After the earlier price surge, the futures premium and the basis weakened. A large number of hedging positions entered the market, suppressing futures prices. At the same time, market sentiment shifted from frantic chasing of gains to rational watching. Under multiple pressures, polyolefin prices fell rapidly from their highs, showing a “spike up then pull back, wide-ranged volatility” pattern.

Viewpoint: Wide-ranged volatility. For the L2605 contract, the reference trading range is 7,500-10k yuan/ton. For the PP2605 contract, the reference trading range is 7,500-10,000 yuan/ton.

(Ouyang Yuke — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0023259)

Caustic Soda：

As of the close of daytime trading on April 2, 2026, the SH2605 contract rose by 39 yuan/ton to 2,289 yuan/ton on a daily basis. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is 710-805 yuan/ton, stable versus the average price of the previous working day. Locally, a large downstream aluminum oxide plant’s liquid caustic procurement price is 660 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is 1,270-1,310 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton versus the average price of the previous working day. Downstream buyers and traders are not very active in taking delivery; chlor-alkali companies’ prices are mainly stable. The 32% caustic soda market price is stable. The 50% caustic soda price fell because domestic downstream has generally weaker enthusiasm to take delivery and exports have weakened.

In March, the caustic soda market shifted from low-level repairs to a move toward a higher center. The key drivers are a “convergence of export expectations + energy cost expectations + high-level sentiment.” Futures and spot price trends diverged. Geopolitical conflict lifts global energy and chemical chain risk premiums. Overseas chlor-alkali units (such as in South Korea and Indonesia) concentrate on reducing load and maintenance. Overseas buyers switch to China, leading to a surge in export inquiry orders and an increase in exports of 50% concentration alkali. In the short term, the follow-through on production cuts is insufficient; effective inventory drawdown has not been achieved. With the market still pricing expectations, the basis remains at a relatively low position, and prices pulled back from high levels.

Strategy: Wide-ranged volatility. For the SH2605 lead contract, the reference price range is 2k-3000 yuan/ton.

(Ouyang Yuke — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0023259)

PVC：

A sharp rise in crude oil boosts ethylene prices, putting pressure on the ethylene-based PVC cost and causing operating rates to fall. Carbide prices are also rising, increasing the rigidity of carbide-based cost support. On the supply side, spring inspections begin and maintenance for ethylene-based units increases; industry operating rates are 80.92%, tightening supply at the margin. On the demand side, operating rates for downstream pipes and profiles are only about 40%, and acceptance of high prices is low. Procurement is mainly small orders for rigid needs, and transactions are lackluster. On the export side, before the cancellation of the April 1 tax rebate, there is “export抢货 (export-chasing)” boosting demand in the short term, but long-term competitiveness weakens. For inventories, factory warehouses are drawing down, but social inventories remain high at around 300k tons, weighing on prices. In the short term, cost and maintenance support prices, but weak demand plus high inventories constrain upward movement. It is expected to remain range-bound and slightly bearish/weak. Pay attention to geopolitical developments, the intensity of spring inspections, and downstream resumption of operations.

Strategy: Wide-ranged volatility. For the V2605 lead contract, the reference price range is 4500-6000 yuan/ton.

(Ouyang Yuke — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0023259)

Crude Oil：

Overnight, international oil prices strengthened, with the Brent June contract up 8.98%. In yesterday’s national speech, Trump said that over the next two to three weeks the U.S. will still carry out extremely severe strikes against Iran. He did not provide a timeline or specific plan for withdrawing from Iran, and market expectations for the war ending before the end of April cooled further. From the evolution of an extreme scenario: if the U.S. quickly ends its actions against Iran, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil would face unwinding, and the Brent target would point to 80-90 USD per barrel. If the conflict continues, as port tank inventory drawdowns gradually become visible, oil prices still face further upside surge risk.

Trading strategy: Look for opportunities to buy crude oil out-of-the-money call options on dips

(Gao Mingyu — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0023613)

Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil：

Yesterday, in the Singapore market, spot premiums for high- and low-sulfur fuel oil declined by 5.65 USD/ton and increased by 4.05 USD/ton, respectively. Recently, the arrivals of high- and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore have been relatively ample. Crack spreads have mainly been range-bound. Domestic high- and low-sulfur fuel oil overall have followed crude oil’s trend. Yesterday, Trump in his national speech said that in the next two to three weeks he will still carry out extremely severe strikes against Iran, without providing a timeline or specific plan to withdraw from Iran. Market expectations for the war ending before the end of April have cooled further, and it is expected that fuel oil will once again strengthen in line with crude oil.

Trading strategy: Wait and see

(Gao Mingyu — Information for futures trading consulting practitioners: Z0023613)

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Responsible editor: Li Tiemin