Exclusive interview with Tianqi Lithium董事兼总裁 Xia Juncheng: From 2026 to 2035, global lithium demand is set for rapid growth

AI问· Lithium Battery Industry Chain Pricing Inversion: Can Industry Self-Discipline Promote a Fair System?

By , Reporter: Xu Shuai; Editor: Chen Junjie

Entering March 2026, the global lithium battery industry is in a delicate period of supply-demand tug-of-war and rule reshaping. On one side, Zimbabwe’s lithium mine export policy remains unsettled, and uncertainty on the supply side continues to build. On the other, energy storage battery cells are expected to deliver more than 50% year-on-year growth this year; this alone is expected to bring at least an additional 150k tons of lithium carbonate demand. With supply and demand mismatched, expectations for lithium prices are heating up again.

Recently, a reporter from (hereinafter referred to as NBD) interviewed Xia Juncheng, Director and President of Tianqi Lithium Industry. Xia Juncheng gave a detailed breakdown of the supply-demand trends for the next ten years. He believes that from 2026 to 2035, global lithium demand is on a clear upward track, and high-speed growth is set in stone.

In the face of the most challenging “pricing inversion” pain point in today’s industrial chain, and the increasingly stringent global ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) reviews, how should Chinese companies shift from “being reviewed passively” to “managing proactively”? He called for more industry self-discipline and the establishment of a diversified, unified pricing system, so that prices can truly be fair and beneficial to producers, consumers, and investors.

Image source: Provided by the company

Energy storage is indeed one of the strongest engines on the demand side today

NBD: How do you view the current and future supply-demand landscape?

Xia Juncheng: Based on the current market situation, we see a stage of supply-demand mismatch. From the supply side, according to the latest Mysteel data, as of March 19, 2026, domestic traders’ available inventory of lithium carbonate is only about 100k tons, down by half from around 250k tons at the end of January. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe’s lithium mine export policy has not fundamentally changed. If this situation continues to develop, lithium carbonate output in April and May may decline due to impacts from concentrate supply. From the demand side, multiple institutions’ survey feedback indicates that in the second and third quarters, downstream cathode material companies are in an expansion cycle, with newly added lithium iron phosphate capacity of more than 2 million tons. In the near term, lithium prices have fallen to around 140k yuan/ton, directly triggering buyers’积极 pre-stocking sentiment. In a stage of supply-demand mismatch, market expectations for a rebound in lithium prices are heating up again.

Beyond the short-term fundamentals, we also need to look at the next ten years. We compiled forecasts from multiple institutions. Although their collected samples differ, the overall trend they conclude is highly consistent: from 2026 to 2035, global lithium demand is on a clear upward track, and high-speed growth is set in stone.

NBD: Energy storage is a major incremental driver—how much exactly will it push?

Xia Juncheng: Energy storage is indeed one of the strongest engines on the current demand side. In 2025, institutions’ data on energy storage battery cell shipments differed. TrendForce is around 650GWh, InfoLink is around 612GWh, and SNE is around 550GWh. As for this year’s incremental expectations, institutions also vary, but the mainstream still gives a forecast of more than 50% year-on-year growth; energy storage battery cell shipments are expected to exceed 900GWh. If we use a conservative 250GWh as the incremental estimate for this year, and calculate using 600 tons of lithium carbonate (LCE) consumed per 1GWh, then even just the incremental shipments of energy storage battery cells would correspond to at least 150k tons of LCE in year-on-year demand increase. This is not counting additional demand brought by emerging fields such as AI data centers and the low-altitude economy.

NBD: At the end of December 2025, multiple leading cathode material companies jointly released shutdown and maintenance notices. How do you view the “pricing inversion” issue?

Xia Juncheng: This is the most painful issue facing the entire lithium battery industrial chain right now, and it is also the problem I particularly want to call for solving today. China accounts for more than 70% of global lithium salt supply and demand, and more than 90% of cathode material capacity is located in China. The Chinese market leads the world in size, and trading in lithium carbonate futures and spot markets is extremely active.

But the problem is that the pricing game rules across the entire industrial chain are not unified. Between upstream mines and lithium salt plants, the pricing method often takes the form of “futures pricing + premiums/discounts,” attempting to capture premiums through the highly liquid futures market. However, downstream cell manufacturers, in pursuit of cost stability, usually require cathode material producers to settle raw material prices based on the “monthly average price published by domestic spot price quotation agencies.”

This leads to a serious structural split: the spot prices quoted by agencies do not fully match futures prices. The processing link is like being trapped in a “spread point”—when futures prices are higher than spot prices, their raw material procurement costs are linked to futures, while product sales must anchor to the spot agency quotations. We observed that in December 2025, the cathode material segment saw more shutdown and maintenance, and we understand that this is related to the pricing inversion and the profit-and-loss situation in that segment to some extent. If this pricing mechanism inversion persists long term, it will lead to an imbalance in profit distribution.

Call for more industry self-discipline

NBD: Facing this pricing mechanism, what specific breakthrough strategies does Tianqi Lithium have?

Xia Juncheng: We propose building a diversified pricing system. It cannot rely solely on the quotation of one single institution or one particular institution. Instead, we should introduce multi-dimensional quotation agency samples, and comprehensively consider the futures main settlement price as well as actual transaction volumes, to explore an industry-wide market transaction price that can smooth the basis between spot and futures.

Our goal is to reshape the logic of distribution across the industrial chain—reduce irrational price differentials and repair imbalances in profit distribution. Only if everyone operates under a fair, transparent, and unified set of game rules, and promotes the deep integration of the futures and spot markets, can this industry return to a healthy and sustainable development track.

NBD: With overseas companies facing increasingly stringent ESG reviews, how does Tianqi Lithium respond?

Xia Juncheng: This is a very core and realistic issue. In the past, when supply chains faced downstream customers’ penetration-style ESG due diligence and product traceability, it was often “being reviewed passively.” In 2025, a total of 41 customers initiated 78 due diligences with Tianqi, up 95% from 2024. Among them, audits related to product carbon footprints increased by 67%. The pressure from these audits is being transmitted along the supply chain, from bottom to top, layer by layer.

The reality is that ESG management costs are quantifiable, yet they are not reflected in current product pricing. Tianqi’s approach is to turn passivity into initiative. We call for exploring a qualitative-to-quantitative leap in the new energy supply chain—achieving a “closed loop of ESG-quality with better pricing” across the supply chain network, transforming ESG investment from a purely “cost item” into a “value item,” and rejecting the expulsion of good by bad.

NBD: How do you view the industry’s adjustments over the past few years?

Xia Juncheng: After these few years of rapid expansion followed by deep adjustments, we need more industry self-discipline. Blind expansion will only lead to a brutal market clearing. We need to control incremental additions, optimize existing capacity, and eliminate outdated production capacity through upgrades to technical standards.

I’d like to borrow a line from Ali Al Naimi, former Saudi oil minister, as a summary: “Any price must be good for the Producers, the Consumers and the Investors.” (Any price must be beneficial to producers, consumers, and investors.)

Daily Economic News