News of Iran war ceasefire negotiations causes gold to trim losses

Despite ongoing escalations in threats by U.S. President Donald Trump that are intensifying and disrupting global markets, reports have emerged about diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in the Iran war; as a result, gold has recouped some losses and pared back its decline.

Gold had fallen as much as 1.6% earlier, and then the decline narrowed, trading around $4, 630 per ounce. Citing sources familiar with the negotiations, Axios reported that the United States, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which could put an end to the fighting.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened that if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz, it would “end up in hell.” Tehran rejected this final ultimatum. The U.S. president then said he plans to hold a news conference at 1:00 p.m. on Monday and publish a deadline at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday on social media, but did not disclose any details.

On March 26, Trump had given Iran a 10-day deadline to reopen the strait, with the cutoff coming on Monday night. This critical waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula has been largely closed since the war broke out at the end of February.

Meanwhile, signs that the U.S. job market is stabilizing have reduced the urgency of rate cuts to support the economy, putting further pressure on gold. In March, the number of nonfarm jobs rose to the highest level since the end of 2024, which could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation risks, while high oil prices are intensifying such risks. Non-yielding gold typically benefits from a low interest-rate environment.

Since the outbreak of the conflict, gold has fallen by about 12%—as soaring energy prices (including U.S. retail gasoline) have sparked inflation worries and rate-cut expectations have faded. As investors liquidate positions and make up for other losses, this has also weakened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

“People are pulling money out to protect their assets,” said Robert Gottlieb (Robert Gottlieb), a former precious metals trader at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a market commentator.

As key U.S. inflation data is released this week, the spike in gasoline prices felt by American consumers will be fully reflected. Economists expect the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 1%, the largest month-over-month increase since 2022. The war has pushed the price of gasoline by more than $1 per gallon at gas stations, and oil prices climbed again on Monday.

Trump’s frequently contradictory remarks on the conflict—at times threatening to intensify attacks and at other times signaling that the war is about to end—have also made gold volatile. Gold rose more than 4% last week, but on Thursday it reversed and ended four straight days of gains.

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责任编辑：郭明煜