Gold remains protected at $4,600 per ounce, and the long-term "de-dollarization" trend continues.

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Near-term liquidity is affected by the situation in the Middle East.

Since entering April, gold has once again fallen into a correction. On April 2, London gold briefly approached 4550 USD per ounce; on April 6 at the open, gold fell sharply, but still held above 4600 USD per ounce.

Earlier, on March 23, London gold briefly broke below 4100 USD per ounce, with the cumulative correction reaching as much as 30% at one point. Since the rebound at the end of March, has the correction already ended? Can gold continue the upward momentum it had previously?

In the view of industry insiders, in the short term gold remains in a sideways trading range, but in the medium to long term, the broader trend of “de-dollarization” will continue, and the factors supporting gold to move higher have not changed.

Li Zhongliang, an investment manager at Cheese Fund, told a reporter from First Finance that there is no clear sign the situation in the Middle East is cooling down, meaning the war may still continue. As a result, the market keeps cycling between “easing expectations” and “risk continuing,” leading to violent fluctuations in gold prices.

“Although short-term volatility is severe, gold’s long-term outlook has not been reversed. What we are seeing now is more like going through a phase of consolidation, accumulating momentum for an upswing in the future. The core long-term logic lies in the ‘de-dollarization’ trend, which provides assurance for gold prices to remain stable,” he analyzed. Technically, after the gold price rebounded to the key level of 4800 USD per ounce, it then saw a rapid pullback, indicating that there is heavy selling pressure overhead. Combined with the back-and-forth of the war, gold prices in the short term are still in a consolidation phase, waiting for the situation to become clearer. The overall performance in the second quarter is still expected to be mainly about range-bound base-building, with a focus on changes in geopolitical risk.

However, he believes that, from a long-cycle perspective, the severe short-term volatility may offer opportunities to build positions in batches.

Wu Lixian, a strategist at Everbright Securities International, analyzed that in the coming few weeks the market may still be quite volatile. The gold price trend is closely tied to the situation in the Middle East. If the conflict heats up over the next two weeks, the gold price may still be affected. In addition, after gold’s rebound from around 4100 USD to about 4700 USD, the cumulative rebound is relatively large; with gold in the short-term at a relatively high level, investors may consider waiting for a pullback before making their arrangements.

Wu Lixian believes that the long-term upward trend in gold prices has not changed, and the logic behind the rise has not changed much.

“Gold’s medium- and long-term logic has not been broken,” Zhou Junzhi, chief macro analyst at China Securities Jiantou, said. In March, gold suffered what was the largest one-week decline since 1983. Concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could be continuously blocked kept rising, and the Fed’s hawkish stance also exerted downward pressure on gold prices. The safe-haven attribute of precious metals has temporarily lost effect, and we need to wait for clearer signals from the interest-rate path.

Zhou Junzhi believes gold price action has not deviated from the framework. Once liquidity’s impact on gold prices fades, gold can again follow the medium- and long-term logic. The weakening of the dollar status and the significantly rising status of RMB internationalization mean that, for gold, this is a system-wide reconfiguration of pricing.

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责任编辑：郭栩彤