Everbright Futures: March 31st Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke Daily Report

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Rebar Steel:

( Qiu Yuecheng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3060829; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0016941 )

Yesterday, the rebar futures market fluctuated but trended slightly stronger. As of the close of day trading, the 2605 rebar contract closed at 3,139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s close, a gain of 0.48%, with open interest down by 99.7k lots. Spot prices rose slightly; trading improved. The price of Tangshan ordinary billet rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2,980 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market rose by 10 yuan/ton to 3,190 yuan/ton. Nationwide building-materials成交量 (trading volume) totaled 99.7k tons. According to Steelbank data, this week nationwide building-materials inventory fell by 0.25% to 6.6339 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory fell by 1.95% to 3.1539 million tons. Overall, inventory declined slightly, which is consistent with seasonal characteristics. At present, the overall rebar futures market is in a stage of “cost push” and “demand suppression” fighting each other. Price performance has seen some uplift at the bottom, but upside momentum is not strong. It is expected that in the short term, the rebar futures market will show a choppy but slightly stronger trend.

Iron Ore:

( Liu Xi, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03087689; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0019538 )

Yesterday, prices of iron ore futures’ main contract i2605 increased. It closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s close, a gain of 0.12%, with 140k lots traded and open interest down by 16k lots. For the main spot varieties in the port market: Qingdao Port PB fines 60.8% 782 remained unchanged, while ultra-fine 671 rose by 3. On the supply side, due to hurricane impacts, Australia’s shipment volumes started to drop noticeably from last Wednesday (March 25) and gradually recovered by Sunday; Brazil’s shipment volumes increased somewhat. Australia shipped 104.2k tons, down 140k tons month-on-month. Brazil shipped 8.414 million tons, up 16k tons month-on-month. In China’s 47 ports, inbound volume was 26.267 million tons, up 10.34M tons month-on-month. On the demand side, blast-furnace hot metal production increased month-on-month to 2.3109 million tons. Port inventories fell by 1.4735 million tons month-on-month. Steel mills’ inventories were reduced by 0.55 million tons. In the near term, geopolitical disturbances are lifting expectations for iron ore costs, and fundamentals have improved. With both long and short factors interwoven, it is expected that in the short term, the iron ore futures market will continue a high-level choppy trend.

Coking Coal:

( Qiu Yuecheng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3060829; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0016941 )

Yesterday, the coking coal market declined. As of the close of day trading, the 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1,214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%, with open interest down by 1,113 lots. For spot supply: in the Lüliang region, prime coking coal (A11, S1.5, G80) was cut by 50 yuan to 1,310 yuan/ton ex-works. At the Ganqimodu port, Mongolian 5#原煤1141元/吨，价格涨5；蒙3# refined coal was 1,200 yuan/ton, down 7 from the previous period. On the supply side, most coal mines in the main producing areas have maintained normal production. With ongoing downstream demand release, inventory pressure on the coal mine side has been further relieved, and most mine points maintain low inventory levels. On the demand side, coking-plant operating rates have stayed high. The first round of coking coal price increases is being gradually implemented. Hot metal production continues to rebound. Coking plants’ willingness to replenish inventories has risen strongly. With macro disturbance factors complex and changeable, it is expected that in the short term, the coking coal futures market will trade in a range.

Coking Coke:

( Qiu Yuecheng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3060829; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0016941 )

Yesterday, the coking coke market rose. As of the close of day trading, the 2605 coking coke contract closed at 1,753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.09%, with open interest down by 436 lots. For spot conditions, port spot quotes for coking coke fell. At Rizhao Port, the spot price of standard-grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous period. On the supply side, coking coal prices for raw materials adjusted downward; overall coal prices are still at a relatively high level. The cost of coking plants’ coal charged into the ovens remains high, and recently, traders have gradually increased inquiry efforts. On the demand side, steel mills’ profits have increased compared with before. As blast furnaces resume operations, hot metal production has also continued to rise, strengthening hard demand for coke. However, macro disturbance factors are complex and changeable, so it is expected that in the short term, the coking coke futures market will trade in a range.

Manganese Silicon:

( Sun Chengzhen, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03099994; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021057 )

On Monday, manganese silicon futures prices fluctuated and strengthened. The main contract closed at 6,588 yuan/ton, up 0.98% month-on-month. The main contract’s open interest decreased by 14,315 lots month-on-month to 366.9k lots. In various regions, the 6517 manganese silicon market prices were about 6,220–6,500 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, it was raised by 70 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Ningxia, it was raised by 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Yesterday, the black commodities sector’s overall trend was on the strong side; alloy prices led in terms of gains, and the focus of manganese silicon futures prices moved upward. In terms of news, the situation in the Middle East has been ongoing and fluctuating recently. Crude oil prices have been relatively strong, but gold has not seen any obvious decline. The market’s reaction to Middle East news has started to become dull. From a fundamentals perspective, as manganese ore prices continue to rise recently, companies cannot pass the increases smoothly down to downstream users, squeezing production profit margins. Therefore, the number of companies that reduce operations, shut down, or switch production is beginning to increase, and the operating rate of manganese silicon production enterprises has gradually declined. On the cost side, affected by higher ocean freight rates and increased production costs for manganese ore, port manganese ore quotes have continued to move higher, making the cost side relatively firm. On the inventory side, inventories of 63 sample enterprises remain at high levels in recent years, with some pressure on inventories. Overall, the cost side has support and the supply side has expectations. In the short term, fundamentals have some upward support, but it is necessary to monitor whether expectations are realized. In the short term, manganese silicon futures prices are to be treated as ranging with a slightly stronger bias.

Ferro-Silicon:

( Sun Chengzhen, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03099994; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021057 )

On Monday, ferro-silicon futures prices fluctuated and strengthened. The main contract closed at 6,066 yuan/ton, up 1.57% month-on-month. The main contract’s open interest rose by 4,555 lots month-on-month to 171.6k lots. In various regions, the summarized 72 silicon price was 5,630–5,680 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, it was raised by 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Ningxia, it was raised by 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Yesterday, the black commodities sector’s overall trend was on the strong side; alloy prices led in terms of gains, and the focus of ferro-silicon futures prices moved upward. In terms of news, the situation in the Middle East has been ongoing and fluctuating recently. Crude oil prices have been relatively strong, but gold has not seen any obvious decline, so the market’s reaction to Middle East news has started to become dull. From a fundamentals perspective, recently a 40,500 kVA ferro-silicon furnace in Shenmu, Shaanxi underwent maintenance; the maintenance duration remains uncertain. Total ferro-silicon production in March is expected to be 451.4k tons, up 63,400 tons month-on-month, but down 8.4% year-on-year. On the cost side, production-cost differences vary by region for ferro-silicon, but overall production costs have increased by 70–80 yuan/ton week-on-week. Currently, in Qinghai it is about 6,050 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia about 5,320 yuan/ton. On the inventory side, inventories of 60 sample enterprises have continued to decline month-on-month, staying at a relatively low level. Overall, ferro-silicon fundamentals have some support. It is expected that in the short term the market will maintain a range with a slightly stronger bias; going forward, continue to monitor the Middle East situation and cost changes.

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