Analysis: The average cost basis for BTC loss positions is $93,600, with a large number of high-level trapped positions already cut and exited.

BlockBeats message, April 5, an on-chain analyst named Murphy said that the average cost basis of all Bitcoin loss-making coins is currently below $100k; currently it is only $93,600, meaning that under the current coin structure, when BTC rises back to $93k it will reach the market’s average break-even line. In two sharp sell-offs at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large amount of high-priced trapped coins chose to cut losses and exit, dragging down the average cost basis of the overall unrealized loss coins. This is what’s commonly referred to as a “washout.”

At the same time, it was observed that the average cost basis of loss-making coins and the 30-day average deviation coefficient of the current BTC price is 1.4, whereas in the past three bear-market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has been at least above 2.0 (the blue waveforms below). When the deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it means that when the market enters the absolute bottom zone, at this moment BTC’s price is only less than 50% of the average cost basis of the loss-making coins. To meet this condition, the lowest point of this round of BTC would drop to $46,800, but historical patterns don’t necessarily always hold. In terms of “pain level,” this bear market may be much milder than any of the previous bear markets.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on Polymarket, in the related markets about whether Bitcoin will first reach $60k or $80k, the probability of reaching $60k first is 68%, and the probability of reaching $80k first is 32%.